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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35008Ontario

Bowmanville—Oshawa North

Bowmanville—Oshawa-Nord

Bowmanville—Oshawa North is a federal riding in Ontario. Jamil Jivani (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2024) represents Bowmanville—Oshawa North. Jamil Jivani (Conservative) held Bowmanville—Oshawa North for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 3,018 votes (4.3 points), with 49.8% of the vote. Bridget Girard (Liberal) was second with 45.5%, on a turnout of 69.7% of 102,318 electors. Member as of .

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes · ConservativeNorthumberland—Clarke · ConservativeOshawa · ConservativePickering—Brooklin · LiberalWhitby · LiberalYork—Durham · ConservativeBowmanville—Oshawa North
Fig. 1 — Bowmanville—Oshawa North on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Bowmanville—Oshawa North

CJamil Jivani
Jamil Jivani's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Jamil Jivani

Member of Parliament for Bowmanville—Oshawa North

Conservative

MP since · 2 terms

50 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Citizenship Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Bowmanville—Oshawa North, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Bowmanville—Oshawa North, April 28, 2025Of the 70,788 valid votes, Jamil Jivani (Conservative) took 49.8%, Bridget Girard (Liberal) 45.5% and Elenor Marano (New Democratic) 2.9%; the 6 other candidates took 1.9% together.2025Turnout 69.7% of 102,318 electorsJamil JivaniConservative49.8% · 35,2323,018 votes ahead · 4.3 ptsBridget GirardLiberal45.5% · 32,214Elenor MaranoNew Democratic2.9% · 2,032Others (6)1.9% · 1,310050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Bowmanville—Oshawa North, April 28, 2025Of the 70,788 valid votes, Jamil Jivani (Conservative) took 49.8%, Bridget Girard (Liberal) 45.5% and Elenor Marano (New Democratic) 2.9%; the 6 other candidates took 1.9% together.2025Turnout 69.7% of 102,318 electorsJamil JivaniConservative49.8% · 35,2323,018 votes ahead · 4.3 ptsBridget GirardLiberal45.5% · 32,214Elenor MaranoNew Democratic2.9% · 2,032Others (6)1.9% · 1,310050%100%
Shares of the 70,788 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jamil JivaniConservative35,23249.8%
Bridget GirardLiberal32,21445.5%
Elenor MaranoNew Democratic2,0322.9%
Others (6)1,3101.9%

Jamil Jivani (Conservative) won Bowmanville—Oshawa North on with 35,232 votes, 49.8% of the 70,788 valid votes. Bridget Girard (Liberal) was second with 32,214 (45.5%), 3,018 votes and 4.3 points behind.

Of the 70,788 valid votes, Jamil Jivani (Conservative) took 49.8%, Bridget Girard (Liberal) 45.5% and Elenor Marano (New Democratic) 2.9%; the 6 other candidates took 1.9% together. Turnout was 69.7% of 102,318 electors: 71,288 ballots cast, 70,788 of them valid, for 9 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 5.4 (44.4% to 49.8%), the Liberals up 14.9 (30.6% to 45.5%) and the New Democrats down 15.4 (18.3% to 2.9%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Conservatives

The party first in Bowmanville—Oshawa North at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004†Conservative38.5%by 1.7 points over the Liberals
  2. 2006Conservative44.6%by 15.6 points over the Liberals
  3. 2008Conservative50.6%by 29.2 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011Conservative54.0%by 28.5 points over the New Democrats
  5. 2015Conservative45.1%by 9.3 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Conservative42.1%by 9.9 points over the Liberals
  7. 2021Conservative44.4%by 13.8 points over the Liberals
  8. 2025Conservative49.8%by 4.3 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004†Conservative38.5%Liberal1.7carried, our estimate
2006Conservative44.6%Liberal15.6carried, our estimate
2008Conservative50.6%Liberal29.2carried, our estimate
2011Conservative54.0%New Democratic28.5carried, our estimate
2015Conservative45.1%Liberal9.3carried, our estimate
2019Conservative42.1%Liberal9.9carried, our estimate
2021Conservative44.4%Liberal13.8transposed by Elections Canada
2025Conservative49.8%Liberal4.3official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 14.0 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Conservatives took 49.8% of the vote here, 4.2 points above their average of 45.6% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (38.5%), 2006 (44.6%), 2008 (50.6%), 2011 (54.0%), 2015 (45.1%), 2019 (42.1%), 2021 (44.4%) and 2025 (49.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Conservative · Erin O'Toole, by 11,156 votes (16.5 pts)
  • 2019 Conservative · Erin O'Toole, by 7,205 votes (9.9 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Erin O'Toole, by 6,018 votes (9.3 pts)

In Durham on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Bowmanville—Oshawa North lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Bowmanville—Oshawa North is

Population
128,5352021 census
Area
412km²
Density
312people per km²
Electors
102,318on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • 5th-most candidates on the ballot in Canada: 9 candidates stood · 5th of 3435th
    5th-most candidates on the ballot in Canada
    9 candidates stood · 5th of 343
  • 8th-most populous in Canada: 128,535 people, 2021 census · 8th of 3438th
    8th-most populous in Canada
    128,535 people, 2021 census · 8th of 343
  • Median total household income is $113,000 — about 1.3 times the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest31st highest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 82.5% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest36th highest of 343
  • Median age is 37.2 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest46th lowest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 21.7% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest148th highest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.5% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest166th lowest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 28.4% — about the same as the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest169th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Bowmanville—Oshawa North, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Durham, but it is only 43% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
100.0%Durham 100.0% of the area · 43% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Jamil JivaniConservative35,23249.8%44.4%+5.4
Bridget GirardLiberal32,21445.5%30.6%+14.9
Elenor MaranoNew Democratic2,0322.9%18.3%−15.4
6 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Julie DietrichGreen5460.8%
Pranay GuntiIndependent2640.4%
Thomas ZekveldOther1550.2%
Clint ColeOther1430.2%
Ghuzna ImamOther1340.2%
Adam SmithOther680.1%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
2,032 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 3,018-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
54 of 217
5 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (158) · ■ won by another party (54) · ▨ tied (5).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,510 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 2.1% of the 70,788 valid votes, 2.1 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative35,232
Liberal32,214
Still Conservative by 3,018 votes. Actual margin: 3,018.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.4% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 51.1%, the Liberals 43.5%, the New Democrats 3.3% and the Greens 0.9%; in advance and special ballots, 48.1%, 48.0%, 2.3% and 0.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Bowmanville—Oshawa North, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Bowmanville—Oshawa North, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 51.1%, the Liberals 43.5%, the New Democrats 3.3% and the Greens 0.9%; in advance and special ballots, 48.1%, 48.0%, 2.3% and 0.6%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative51.1%48.1%−3.0 ptsLiberal43.5%48.0%+4.5 ptsNew Democratic3.3%2.3%−1.0 ptsGreen0.9%0.6%−0.3 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Bowmanville—Oshawa North, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 51.1%, the Liberals 43.5%, the New Democrats 3.3% and the Greens 0.9%; in advance and special ballots, 48.1%, 48.0%, 2.3% and 0.6%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative51.1%48.1%−3.0 ptsLiberal43.5%48.0%+4.5 ptsNew Democratic3.3%2.3%−1.0 ptsGreen0.9%0.6%−0.3 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Conservative51.1%48.1%−3.0
Liberal43.5%48.0%+4.5
New Democratic3.3%2.3%−1.0
Green0.9%0.6%−0.3
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Bowmanville—Oshawa North and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Bowmanville—Oshawa North — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/bowmanville-oshawa-north/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.