The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35044Ontario

Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk is a federal riding in Ontario. Gaétan Malette (Conservative) has represented Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk since the 2025 election. Gaétan Malette (Conservative) took Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk from the New Democrats in the 2025 election by 4,696 votes (9.9 points), with 48.9% of the vote. Steve Black (Liberal) was second with 39.0%, on a turnout of 62.6% of 76,004 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

Gaétan Malette's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Gaétan Malette

Member of Parliament for Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk

Conservative

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Natural Resources committee

49 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on One Canadian Economy Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative gain from the New Democrats

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 47,137 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Gaétan Malette	Conservative	23,062	48.9%
Steve Black	Liberal	18,366	39.0%
Nicole Fortier Levesque	New Democratic	4,895	10.4%
Serge Lefebvre	People's Party	814	1.7%

Gaétan Malette (Conservative) won Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk on April 28, 2025 with 23,062 votes, 48.9% of the 47,137 valid votes. Steve Black (Liberal) was second with 18,366 (39.0%), 4,696 votes and 9.9 points behind.

Of the 47,137 valid votes, Gaétan Malette (Conservative) took 48.9%, Steve Black (Liberal) 39.0%, Nicole Fortier Levesque (New Democratic) 10.4% and Serge Lefebvre (People's Party) 1.7%. Turnout was 62.6% of 76,004 electors: 47,545 ballots cast, 47,137 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 24.0 (24.9% to 48.9%), the Liberals up 13.1 (25.9% to 39.0%), the New Democrats down 25.0 (35.4% to 10.4%) and the People's Party down 10.4 (12.1% to 1.7%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004†Liberal40.0%by 0.9 points over the New Democrats
2006changed handsNew Democratic46.6%by 11.4 points over the Liberals
2008New Democratic53.8%by 29.1 points over the Liberals
2011New Democratic50.7%by 19.4 points over the Conservatives
2015New Democratic42.2%by 7.6 points over the Liberals
2019New Democratic40.8%by 14.0 points over the Conservatives
2021New Democratic35.4%by 9.5 points over the Liberals
2025changed handsConservative48.9%by 9.9 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004†	Liberal	40.0%	New Democratic	0.9	carried, our estimate
2006	New Democratic	46.6%	Liberal	11.4	carried, our estimate
2008	New Democratic	53.8%	Liberal	29.1	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	50.7%	Conservative	19.4	carried, our estimate
2015	New Democratic	42.2%	Liberal	7.6	carried, our estimate
2019	New Democratic	40.8%	Conservative	14.0	carried, our estimate
2021	New Democratic	35.4%	Liberal	9.5	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	48.9%	Liberal	9.9	official result

The NDP were first at six of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at one and the Conservatives at one; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Conservatives took 48.9% of the vote here, 26.5 points above their average of 22.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (40.0%), the NDP in 2006 (46.6%), 2008 (53.8%), 2011 (50.7%), 2015 (42.2%), 2019 (40.8%) and 2021 (35.4%) and the Conservatives in 2025 (48.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 New Democratic · Charlie Angus, by 2,739 votes (7.9 pts)
2019 New Democratic · Charlie Angus, by 4,978 votes (13.5 pts)
2015 New Democratic · Charlie Angus, by 3,034 votes (8.2 pts)

In Timmins—James Bay on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk is

Population: 93,9052021 census
Area: 276,431km²
Density: 0.34people per km²
Electors: 76,004on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-largest by area in Ontario
276,431 km² · 2nd of 122 in Ontario · 11th of 343 in Canada
Changed hands in 2025
One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 13.7% — about 49 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest12th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 3.0% — about 17 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest29th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 35.3% — about 22.1 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest77th highest of 343
Median age is 43.6 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest106th highest of 343
Median total household income is $77,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest112th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 67.9% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest132nd lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 75% of the 2025 electors in today's Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk lived in the old Timmins—James Bay; by area, 18% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

75.4%Timmins—James Bay 82.0% of the area · 89% of it kept

24.6%Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing 16.6% of the area · 41% of it kept

0.0%Kenora 1.3% of the area · 1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Gaétan Malette	Conservative	23,062	48.9%	24.9%	+24.0
Steve Black	Liberal	18,366	39.0%	25.9%	+13.1
Nicole Fortier Levesque	New Democratic	4,895	10.4%	35.4%	−25.0
Serge Lefebvre	People's	814	1.7%	12.1%	−10.4

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

4,895 votes

New Democratic took more than the 4,696-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

30 of 164

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (134) · ■ won by another party (30).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,349 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 5.0% of the 47,137 valid votes, 5.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 004,698

Conservative23,062

Liberal18,366

Still Conservative by 4,696 votes. Actual margin: 4,696.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 57.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 50.7%, the Liberals 36.3%, the New Democrats 11.0% and the People's Party 2.0%; in advance and special ballots, 46.4%, 42.6%, 9.6% and 1.3%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	50.7%	46.4%	−4.3
Liberal	36.3%	42.6%	+6.3
New Democratic	11.0%	9.6%	−1.4
People's Party	2.0%	1.3%	−0.7

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk and its 8 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/kapuskasing-timmins-mushkegowuk/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.