The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35114Ontario

Waterloo

Waterloo is a federal riding in Ontario. Bardish Chagger (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Waterloo. Bardish Chagger (Liberal) held Waterloo for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 17,008 votes (26.9 points), with 59.5% of the vote. Waseem Botros (Conservative) was second with 32.6%, on a turnout of 72.8% of 87,283 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Waterloo on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Waterloo

Bardish Chagger's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Bardish Chagger

Member of Parliament for Waterloo

Liberal

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics committee
Library of Parliament committee

108 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Citizenship Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Waterloo, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 63,193 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Bardish Chagger	Liberal	37,579	59.5%
Waseem Botros	Conservative	20,571	32.6%
Héline Chow	New Democratic	2,617	4.1%
Simon Guthrie	Green	1,599	2.5%
Others (5)		827	1.3%

Bardish Chagger (Liberal) won Waterloo on April 28, 2025 with 37,579 votes, 59.5% of the 63,193 valid votes. Waseem Botros (Conservative) was second with 20,571 (32.6%), 17,008 votes and 26.9 points behind.

Of the 63,193 valid votes, Bardish Chagger (Liberal) took 59.5%, Waseem Botros (Conservative) 32.6%, Héline Chow (New Democratic) 4.1% and Simon Guthrie (Green) 2.5%; the 5 other candidates took 1.3% together. Turnout was 72.8% of 87,283 electors: 63,511 ballots cast, 63,193 of them valid, for 9 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 14.3 (45.2% to 59.5%), the Conservatives up 5.3 (27.3% to 32.6%), the New Democrats down 14.9 (19.0% to 4.1%) and the Greens down 0.9 (3.4% to 2.5%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Waterloo at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal48.1%by 18.7 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal46.9%by 18.5 points over the Conservatives
2008†changed handsConservative36.1%by less than 0.1 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative40.9%by 3.2 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal49.7%by 17.4 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal48.8%by 24.3 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal45.2%by 17.9 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal59.5%by 26.9 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	48.1%	Conservative	18.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	46.9%	Conservative	18.5	carried, our estimate
2008†	Conservative	36.1%	Liberal	0.0	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	40.9%	Liberal	3.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	49.7%	Conservative	17.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	48.8%	Conservative	24.3	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	45.2%	Conservative	17.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	59.5%	Conservative	26.9	official result

The Liberals were first at six of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at two; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 59.5% of the vote here, 14.9 points above their average of 44.6% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (48.1%), 2006 (46.9%), 2015 (49.7%), 2019 (48.8%), 2021 (45.2%) and 2025 (59.5%) and the Conservatives in 2008 (36.1%) and 2011 (40.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2008 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Bardish Chagger, by 10,398 votes (17.4 pts)
2019 Liberal · Bardish Chagger, by 15,470 votes (24.3 pts)
2015 Liberal · Bardish Chagger, by 10,434 votes (17.4 pts)

In the old Waterloo on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Waterloo lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Waterloo is

Population: 121,4352021 census
Area: 68km²
Density: 1,775people per km²
Electors: 87,283on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

5th-most candidates on the ballot in Canada
9 candidates stood · 5th of 343

Median age is 36.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest32nd lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 54.5% — about 1.9 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest32nd highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest79th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 61.3% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest92nd lowest of 343
Median total household income is $94,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest93rd highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 27.5% — about 1.6 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest115th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Waterloo, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Waterloo, but it is only 88% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Waterloo 100.0% of the area · 88% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Bardish Chagger	Liberal	37,579	59.5%	45.2%	+14.3
Waseem Botros	Conservative	20,571	32.6%	27.3%	+5.3
Héline Chow	New Democratic	2,617	4.1%	19.0%	−14.9
Simon Guthrie	Green	1,599	2.5%	3.4%	−0.9

5 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Douglas Ross	People's	348	0.6%
Val Neekman	Independent	179	0.3%
Santa Claus Chatham	Other	119	0.2%
Hans Roach	Independent	105	0.2%
Jamie Hari	Independent	76	0.1%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,617 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 17,008-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

13 of 192

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (179) · ■ won by another party (13).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 8,505 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 13.5% of the 63,193 valid votes, 13.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0017,010

Liberal37,579

Conservative20,571

Still Liberal by 17,008 votes. Actual margin: 17,008.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 54.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 55.1%, the Conservatives 35.9%, the New Democrats 4.5% and the Greens 3.0%; in advance and special ballots, 64.8%, 28.6%, 3.7% and 2.0%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Waterloo, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	55.1%	64.8%	+9.7
Conservative	35.9%	28.6%	−7.3
New Democratic	4.5%	3.7%	−0.8
Green	3.0%	2.0%	−1.0

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Waterloo and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Waterloo — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/waterloo/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.