The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Barrie South—Innisfil

Barrie-Sud—Innisfil
Federal riding · ON · No. 35004 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Barrie South—Innisfil, 2023 boundaries.
Member
John Brassard Conservative
2025 result
Conservative hold by 13,386 votes
Turnout
67.9% of 99,737 electors
Population
120,380 2021 census
Area
407 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Boundaries unchanged in 2023: Covers the same ground as its predecessor · one of 59 of 343 by area59
    Boundaries unchanged in 2023
    Covers the same ground as its predecessor · one of 59 of 343 by area
  • Population, largest first: 120,380 people, 2021 census · 60th of 343 in Canada60th
    Population, largest first
    120,380 people, 2021 census · 60th of 343 in Canada
  • Turnout, lowest first: 67.9% of 99,737 electors voted · 128th of 343 in Canada128th
    Turnout, lowest first
    67.9% of 99,737 electors voted · 128th of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. John Brassard held the seat for the Conservatives by 13,386 votes (+19.8 points).
  2. The boundaries did not change in 2023.
  3. Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 54.5% of votes were cast on the day.
  4. Median total household income is the 48th highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
John Brassard
Conservative · first elected 2015-10-19 · 4 terms
  • Chair: Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics
  • Chair: Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
  • Member: Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics
  • Member: Liaison
123 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Barrie South—Innisfil covers almost exactly the same ground as the Barrie—Innisfil riding it replaced.

How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Conservative hold
Elected
John Brassard
Conservative
38,943
57.8% of valid votes
Margin
13,386
votes · +19.8 pts
Runner-up
John Olthuis
Liberal
25,557
38.0% of valid votes
Conservative 57.8% · Liberal 38.0% · New Democratic 3.2% · People's 1.0%
Turnout67.9% of 99,737 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
John BrassardConservative38,94357.8%47.3%+10.5
John OlthuisLiberal25,55738.0%28.7%+9.3
Andrew HarriganNew Democratic2,1303.2%15.6%−12.4
Mark SampsonPeople's6951.0%7.6%−6.6
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
9.9 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,130 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 13,386-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
4 of 155
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (150) · ■ won by another party (4) · ▨ tied (1).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 6,694 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 9.9% of the 67,325 valid votes, 9.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative38,943
Liberal25,557
Still Conservative by 13,386 votes. Actual margin: 13,386.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 54.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative60.2%55.0%−5.2
Liberal35.1%41.4%+6.3
New Democratic3.5%2.8%−0.7
People's1.2%0.8%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Barrie South—Innisfil and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 35004ON · 2025
Barrie South—Innisfil
John Brassard
Result
Conservative hold by 13,386
Turnout
67.9%
Population
120,380
Area
407 km²
Boundaries unchanged in 2023: Covers the same ground as its predecessor · one of 59 of 343 by area59Boundaries unchanged in 2023Population, largest first: 120,380 people, 2021 census · 60th of 343 in Canada60thPopulation, largest firstTurnout, lowest first: 67.9% of 99,737 electors voted · 128th of 343 in Canada128thTurnout, lowest first
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

Open a neighbour to collect the next one.