The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35004Ontario

Barrie South—Innisfil

Barrie-Sud—Innisfil

Barrie South—Innisfil is a federal riding in Ontario. John Brassard (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Barrie South—Innisfil. John Brassard (Conservative) held Barrie South—Innisfil for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 13,386 votes (19.8 points), with 57.8% of the vote. John Olthuis (Liberal) was second with 38.0%, on a turnout of 67.9% of 99,737 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Barrie South—Innisfil on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Barrie South—Innisfil

John Brassard's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

John Brassard

Member of Parliament for Barrie South—Innisfil

Conservative

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Chair, Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics committee
Chair, Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics committee
Liaison committee

156 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Barrie South—Innisfil, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 67,325 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
John Brassard	Conservative	38,943	57.8%
John Olthuis	Liberal	25,557	38.0%
Andrew Harrigan	New Democratic	2,130	3.2%
Mark Sampson	People's Party	695	1.0%

John Brassard (Conservative) won Barrie South—Innisfil on April 28, 2025 with 38,943 votes, 57.8% of the 67,325 valid votes. John Olthuis (Liberal) was second with 25,557 (38.0%), 13,386 votes and 19.8 points behind.

Of the 67,325 valid votes, John Brassard (Conservative) took 57.8%, John Olthuis (Liberal) 38.0%, Andrew Harrigan (New Democratic) 3.2% and Mark Sampson (People's Party) 1.0%. Turnout was 67.9% of 99,737 electors: 67,762 ballots cast, 67,325 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 10.5 (47.3% to 57.8%), the Liberals up 9.3 (28.7% to 38.0%), the New Democrats down 12.4 (15.6% to 3.2%) and the People's Party down 6.6 (7.6% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Conservatives

The party first in Barrie South—Innisfil at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative42.2%by 2.5 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative44.4%by 8.7 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative54.2%by 32.4 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative59.5%by 39.3 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative46.4%by 9.3 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative43.8%by 14.5 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative47.3%by 18.6 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative57.8%by 19.8 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	42.2%	Liberal	2.5	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	44.4%	Liberal	8.7	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	54.2%	Liberal	32.4	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	59.5%	New Democratic	39.3	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	46.4%	Liberal	9.3	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	43.8%	Liberal	14.5	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	47.3%	Liberal	18.6	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	57.8%	Liberal	19.8	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 18.1 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Conservatives took 57.8% of the vote here, 9.6 points above their average of 48.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (42.2%), 2006 (44.4%), 2008 (54.2%), 2011 (59.5%), 2015 (46.4%), 2019 (43.8%), 2021 (47.3%) and 2025 (57.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · John Brassard, by 9,942 votes (18.8 pts)
2019 Conservative · John Brassard, by 7,886 votes (14.5 pts)
2015 Conservative · John Brassard, by 4,593 votes (9.3 pts)

In Barrie—Innisfil on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Barrie South—Innisfil lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Barrie South—Innisfil is

Population: 120,3802021 census
Area: 407km²
Density: 296people per km²
Electors: 99,737on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Median total household income is $104,000 — about 1.2 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest48th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 79.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest65th highest of 343
Median age is 39.6 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest105th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 23.8% — about 84 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest136th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 19.3% — a little higher than the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest162nd highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.5% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest166th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Barrie South—Innisfil covers almost exactly the same ground as the Barrie—Innisfil riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
John Brassard	Conservative	38,943	57.8%	47.3%	+10.5
John Olthuis	Liberal	25,557	38.0%	28.7%	+9.3
Andrew Harrigan	New Democratic	2,130	3.2%	15.6%	−12.4
Mark Sampson	People's	695	1.0%	7.6%	−6.6

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,130 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 13,386-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

4 of 155

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (150) · ■ won by another party (4) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 6,694 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 9.9% of the 67,325 valid votes, 9.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0013,388

Conservative38,943

Liberal25,557

Still Conservative by 13,386 votes. Actual margin: 13,386.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 54.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 60.2%, the Liberals 35.1%, the New Democrats 3.5% and the People's Party 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 55.0%, 41.4%, 2.8% and 0.8%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Barrie South—Innisfil, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	60.2%	55.0%	−5.2
Liberal	35.1%	41.4%	+6.3
New Democratic	3.5%	2.8%	−0.7
People's Party	1.2%	0.8%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Barrie South—Innisfil and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Barrie South—Innisfil — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/barrie-south-innisfil/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.