The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35003Ontario

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill is a federal riding in Ontario. Costas Menegakis (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2011) represents Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill. Costas Menegakis (Conservative) took Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill from the Liberals in the 2025 election by 7,433 votes (11.9 points), with 54.7% of the vote. Leah Taylor Roy (Liberal) was second with 42.8%, on a turnout of 69.5% of 90,016 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Costas Menegakis's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Costas Menegakis

Member of Parliament for Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Conservative

MP since 2011-05-02 · 2 terms

Citizenship and Immigration committee

144 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Citizenship Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative gain from the Liberals

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 62,169 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Costas Menegakis	Conservative	34,023	54.7%
Leah Taylor Roy	Liberal	26,590	42.8%
Danielle Maniuk	New Democratic	835	1.3%
Others (2)		721	1.2%

Costas Menegakis (Conservative) won Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill on April 28, 2025 with 34,023 votes, 54.7% of the 62,169 valid votes. Leah Taylor Roy (Liberal) was second with 26,590 (42.8%), 7,433 votes and 11.9 points behind.

Of the 62,169 valid votes, Costas Menegakis (Conservative) took 54.7%, Leah Taylor Roy (Liberal) 42.8% and Danielle Maniuk (New Democratic) 1.3%; the 2 other candidates took 1.2% together. Turnout was 69.5% of 90,016 electors: 62,579 ballots cast, 62,169 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 13.0 (41.7% to 54.7%), the Liberals down 1.5 (44.3% to 42.8%) and the New Democrats down 6.7 (8.0% to 1.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal49.3%by 14.2 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal47.6%by 10.1 points over the Conservatives
2008changed handsConservative42.8%by 2.8 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative51.2%by 23.4 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal47.1%by 2.1 points over the Conservatives
2019†changed handsConservative43.9%by 1.4 points over the Liberals
2021changed handsLiberal44.3%by 2.6 points over the Conservatives
2025changed handsConservative54.7%by 11.9 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	49.3%	Conservative	14.2	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	47.6%	Conservative	10.1	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	42.8%	Liberal	2.8	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	51.2%	Liberal	23.4	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	47.1%	Conservative	2.1	carried, our estimate
2019†	Conservative	43.9%	Liberal	1.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	44.3%	Conservative	2.6	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	54.7%	Liberal	11.9	official result

The Liberals were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at four; it changed hands five times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 54.7% of the vote here, 12.2 points above their average of 42.5% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (49.3%), 2006 (47.6%), 2015 (47.1%) and 2021 (44.3%) and the Conservatives in 2008 (42.8%), 2011 (51.2%), 2019 (43.9%) and 2025 (54.7%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2019 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Leah Taylor Roy, by 1,460 votes (3.1 pts)
2019 Conservative · Leona Alleslev, by 1,060 votes (2.0 pts)
2015 Liberal · Leona Alleslev, by 1,093 votes (2.1 pts)

In the old Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill is

Population: 117,7502021 census
Area: 102km²
Density: 1,158people per km²
Electors: 90,016on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Changed hands in 2025
One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)

Median total household income is $122,000 — about 1.5 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest15th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 83.9% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest24th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 54.6% — about 1.9 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest31st highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 49.0% — about 2.8 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest34th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.7% — about 44 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest48th lowest of 343
Median age is 42.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest132nd highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 92% of the 2025 electors in today's Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill lived in the old Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill; by area, 6% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

91.7%Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 94.2% of the area · 95% of it kept

8.3%Newmarket—Aurora 5.8% of the area · 9% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Costas Menegakis	Conservative	34,023	54.7%	41.7%	+13.0
Leah Taylor Roy	Liberal	26,590	42.8%	44.3%	−1.5
Danielle Maniuk	New Democratic	835	1.3%	8.0%	−6.7

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Tom Muench	Green	465	0.7%
Igor Tvorogov	People's	256	0.4%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

835 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 7,433-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

21 of 188

2 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (165) · ■ won by another party (21) · ▨ tied (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 3,717 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 6.0% of the 62,169 valid votes, 6.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 007,434

Conservative34,023

Liberal26,590

Still Conservative by 7,433 votes. Actual margin: 7,433.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 51.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 56.4%, the Liberals 40.5% and the New Democrats 1.7%; in advance and special ballots, 52.9%, 45.2% and 1.0%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	56.4%	52.9%	−3.5
Liberal	40.5%	45.2%	+4.7
New Democratic	1.7%	1.0%	−0.7

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/aurora-oak-ridges-richmond-hill/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.