The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
York—Durham
Federal riding · ON · No. 35121 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Jacob Mantle Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 11,603 votes
- Turnout
- 72.7% of 100,468 electors
- Population
- 116,560 2021 census
- Area
- 2,327 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Turnout72.7% of 100,468 electors voted · 79th of 343 in Canada
- Population, largest first116,560 people, 2021 census · 107th of 343 in Canada
- Area, largest first2,327 km² · 122nd of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Jacob Mantle held the seat for the Conservatives by 11,603 votes (+16.0 points).
- 72% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 51.4% of votes were cast on the day.
- Share of households that own their home is the 28th highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Jacob Mantle
- Member: International Trade
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 72% of today's York—Durham came from ridings other than the old York—Simcoe.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
28.1%York—Simcoe 56% of it kept
23.2%Durham 57% of it kept
21.1%Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 5% of it kept
19.0%Pickering—Uxbridge 64% of it kept
8.6%Markham—Stouffville 67% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Jacob Mantle
Conservative
40,329
55.6% of valid votes
Margin
11,603
votes · +16.0 pts
Runner-up
Robert Grossi
Liberal
28,726
39.6% of valid votes
Conservative 55.6% · Liberal 39.6% · New Democratic 2.5% · People's 1.2% · Green 1.1%
Turnout72.7% of 100,468 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Mantle | Conservative | 40,329 | 55.6% | 51.4% | +4.2 |
| Robert Grossi | Liberal | 28,726 | 39.6% | 28.3% | +11.3 |
| Justin Graham | New Democratic | 1,829 | 2.5% | 12.5% | −10.0 |
| Patricia Conlin | People's | 901 | 1.2% | 6.3% | −5.1 |
| Matt Pearce | Green | 797 | 1.1% | 0.6% | +0.5 |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
8.0 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
1,829 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 11,603-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
9 of 128
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 5,802 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 8.0% of the 72,582 valid votes, 8.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative40,329
Liberal28,726
Still Conservative by 11,603 votes. Actual margin: 11,603.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 51.4% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative57.9%53.0%−4.9
Liberal36.2%43.2%+7.0
New Democratic3.0%2.0%−1.0
People's1.5%1.0%−0.5
Green1.4%0.8%−0.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $104,000 — about 1.2 times the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest48th highest of 343
- Median age is 46.0 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest65th highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 24.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest138th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 15.7% — a little lower than the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest166th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 83.6% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest28th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest79th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 35121ON · 2025
York—Durham
Jacob Mantle
- Result
- Conservative hold by 11,603
- Turnout
- 72.7%
- Population
- 116,560
- Area
- 2,327 km²
TurnoutPopulation, largest firstArea, largest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.