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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35121Ontario

York—Durham

York—Durham is a federal riding in Ontario. Jacob Mantle (Conservative) has represented York—Durham since the 2025 election. Jacob Mantle (Conservative) held York—Durham for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 11,603 votes (16.0 points), with 55.6% of the vote. Robert Grossi (Liberal) was second with 39.6%, on a turnout of 72.7% of 100,468 electors. Member as of .

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill · ConservativeBarrie South—Innisfil · ConservativeBarrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte · ConservativeBowmanville—Oshawa North · ConservativeHaliburton—Kawartha Lakes · ConservativeMarkham—Stouffville · LiberalMarkham—Unionville · LiberalYork—South Simcoe · ConservativeNewmarket—Aurora · ConservativePickering—Brooklin · LiberalSimcoe North · ConservativeYork—Durham
Fig. 1 — York—Durham on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents York—Durham

CJacob Mantle
Jacob Mantle's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Jacob Mantle

Member of Parliament for York—Durham

Conservative

MP since · first term

  • International Trade committee

294 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Housing.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, York—Durham, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, York—Durham, April 28, 2025Of the 72,582 valid votes, Jacob Mantle (Conservative) took 55.6%, Robert Grossi (Liberal) 39.6%, Justin Graham (New Democratic) 2.5%, Patricia Conlin (People's Party) 1.2% and Matt Pearce (Green) 1.1%.2025Turnout 72.7% of 100,468 electorsJacob MantleConservative55.6% · 40,32911,603 votes ahead · 16.0 ptsRobert GrossiLiberal39.6% · 28,726Justin GrahamNew Democratic2.5% · 1,829Patricia ConlinPeople's Party1.2% · 901Matt PearceGreen1.1% · 797050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, York—Durham, April 28, 2025Of the 72,582 valid votes, Jacob Mantle (Conservative) took 55.6%, Robert Grossi (Liberal) 39.6%, Justin Graham (New Democratic) 2.5%, Patricia Conlin (People's Party) 1.2% and Matt Pearce (Green) 1.1%.2025Turnout 72.7% of 100,468 electorsJacob MantleConservative55.6% · 40,32911,603 votes ahead · 16.0 ptsRobert GrossiLiberal39.6% · 28,726Justin GrahamNew Democratic2.5% · 1,829Patricia ConlinPeople's Party1.2% · 901Matt PearceGreen1.1% · 797050%100%
Shares of the 72,582 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jacob MantleConservative40,32955.6%
Robert GrossiLiberal28,72639.6%
Justin GrahamNew Democratic1,8292.5%
Patricia ConlinPeople's Party9011.2%
Matt PearceGreen7971.1%

Jacob Mantle (Conservative) won York—Durham on with 40,329 votes, 55.6% of the 72,582 valid votes. Robert Grossi (Liberal) was second with 28,726 (39.6%), 11,603 votes and 16.0 points behind.

Of the 72,582 valid votes, Jacob Mantle (Conservative) took 55.6%, Robert Grossi (Liberal) 39.6%, Justin Graham (New Democratic) 2.5%, Patricia Conlin (People's Party) 1.2% and Matt Pearce (Green) 1.1%. Turnout was 72.7% of 100,468 electors: 73,088 ballots cast, 72,582 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 4.2 (51.4% to 55.6%), the Liberals up 11.3 (28.3% to 39.6%), the New Democrats down 10.0 (12.5% to 2.5%), the People's Party down 5.1 (6.3% to 1.2%) and the Greens up 0.5 (0.6% to 1.1%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Conservatives

The party first in York—Durham at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Conservative43.0%by 5.7 points over the Liberals
  2. 2006Conservative47.2%by 15.8 points over the Liberals
  3. 2008Conservative54.9%by 33.2 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011Conservative59.6%by 39.7 points over the New Democrats
  5. 2015Conservative46.6%by 7.1 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Conservative42.3%by 10.4 points over the Liberals
  7. 2021Conservative51.4%by 23.1 points over the Liberals
  8. 2025Conservative55.6%by 16.0 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Conservative43.0%Liberal5.7carried, our estimate
2006Conservative47.2%Liberal15.8carried, our estimate
2008Conservative54.9%Liberal33.2carried, our estimate
2011Conservative59.6%New Democratic39.7carried, our estimate
2015Conservative46.6%Liberal7.1carried, our estimate
2019Conservative42.3%Liberal10.4carried, our estimate
2021Conservative51.4%Liberal23.1transposed by Elections Canada
2025Conservative55.6%Liberal16.0official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 18.9 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Conservatives took 55.6% of the vote here, 6.3 points above their average of 49.3% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (43.0%), 2006 (47.2%), 2008 (54.9%), 2011 (59.6%), 2015 (46.6%), 2019 (42.3%), 2021 (51.4%) and 2025 (55.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Conservative · Scot Davidson, by 10,431 votes (21.0 pts)
  • 2019 Conservative · Scot Davidson, by 10,511 votes (19.5 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Peter Van Loan, by 5,975 votes (12.4 pts)

In York—Simcoe on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's York—Durham lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place York—Durham is

Population
116,5602021 census
Area
2,327km²
Density
50people per km²
Electors
100,468on the 2025 lists
  • Share of households that own their home is 83.6% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest28th highest of 343
  • Median total household income is $104,000 — about 1.2 times the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest48th highest of 343
  • Median age is 46.0 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest65th highest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest79th lowest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 24.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest138th lowest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 15.7% — a little lower than the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest166th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 53% of the 2025 electors in today's York—Durham lived in the old York—Simcoe; by area, 72% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
52.6%York—Simcoe 28.1% of the area · 56% of it kept
16.1%Durham 23.2% of the area · 57% of it kept
14.9%Pickering—Uxbridge 19.0% of the area · 64% of it kept
10.0%Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 21.1% of the area · 5% of it kept
6.4%Markham—Stouffville 8.6% of the area · 67% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Jacob MantleConservative40,32955.6%51.4%+4.2
Robert GrossiLiberal28,72639.6%28.3%+11.3
Justin GrahamNew Democratic1,8292.5%12.5%−10.0
Patricia ConlinPeople's9011.2%6.3%−5.1
Matt PearceGreen7971.1%0.6%+0.5
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
1,829 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 11,603-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
9 of 128
No poll ended in a tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (119) · ■ won by another party (9).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 5,802 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 8.0% of the 72,582 valid votes, 8.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative40,329
Liberal28,726
Still Conservative by 11,603 votes. Actual margin: 11,603.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 51.4% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 57.9%, the Liberals 36.2%, the New Democrats 3.0%, the People's Party 1.5% and the Greens 1.4%; in advance and special ballots, 53.0%, 43.2%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.8%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, York—Durham, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, York—Durham, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 57.9%, the Liberals 36.2%, the New Democrats 3.0%, the People's Party 1.5% and the Greens 1.4%; in advance and special ballots, 53.0%, 43.2%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.8%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative57.9%53.0%−4.9 ptsLiberal36.2%43.2%+7.0 ptsNew Democratic3.0%2.0%−1.0 ptsPeople's Party1.5%1.0%−0.5 ptsGreen1.4%0.8%−0.6 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, York—Durham, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 57.9%, the Liberals 36.2%, the New Democrats 3.0%, the People's Party 1.5% and the Greens 1.4%; in advance and special ballots, 53.0%, 43.2%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.8%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative57.9%53.0%−4.9 ptsLiberal36.2%43.2%+7.0 ptsNew Democratic3.0%2.0%−1.0 ptsPeople's Party1.5%1.0%−0.5 ptsGreen1.4%0.8%−0.6 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Conservative57.9%53.0%−4.9
Liberal36.2%43.2%+7.0
New Democratic3.0%2.0%−1.0
People's Party1.5%1.0%−0.5
Green1.4%0.8%−0.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — York—Durham and its 11 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"York—Durham — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/york-durham/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.