The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Simcoe—Grey

Federal riding · ON · No. 35098 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Simcoe—Grey, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Terry Dowdall Conservative
2025 result
Conservative hold by 5,909 votes
Turnout
71.4% of 95,606 electors
Population
107,835 2021 census
Area
2,545 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Population, smallest first: 107,835 people, 2021 census · 111th of 343 in Canada111th
    Population, smallest first
    107,835 people, 2021 census · 111th of 343 in Canada
  • Area, largest first: 2,545 km² · 117th of 343 in Canada117th
    Area, largest first
    2,545 km² · 117th of 343 in Canada
  • Turnout: 71.4% of 95,606 electors voted · 121st of 343 in Canada121st
    Turnout
    71.4% of 95,606 electors voted · 121st of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Terry Dowdall held the seat for the Conservatives by 5,909 votes (+8.7 points).
  2. The riding shrank in 2023: it keeps 90% of the old Simcoe—Grey.
  3. Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 49.1% of votes were cast on the day.
  4. Median age is the 38th highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Terry Dowdall
Conservative · first elected 2019-10-21 · 3 terms
28 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget Implementation Act, No. 1.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Simcoe—Grey comes from the old Simcoe—Grey, but it is only 90% of that riding. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
100.0%Simcoe—Grey 90% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Conservative hold
Elected
Terry Dowdall
Conservative
35,364
52.1% of valid votes
Margin
5,909
votes · +8.7 pts
Runner-up
Bren Munro
Liberal
29,455
43.4% of valid votes
Conservative 52.1% · Liberal 43.4% · New Democratic 2.3% · Green 1.5%
Turnout71.4% of 95,606 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Terry DowdallConservative35,36452.1%47.2%+4.9
Bren MunroLiberal29,45543.4%27.7%+15.7
Jasleen BainsNew Democratic1,5742.3%13.1%−10.8
Allan KuhnGreen9911.5%4.1%−2.6
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
Giorgio MammolitiPeople's5230.8%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
4.3 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
1,574 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 5,909-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
49 of 182
No poll ended in a tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (133) · ■ won by another party (49).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,955 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 4.4% of the 67,907 valid votes, 4.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative35,364
Liberal29,455
Still Conservative by 5,909 votes. Actual margin: 5,909.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 49.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative55.5%48.8%−6.7
Liberal38.9%47.6%+8.7
New Democratic2.8%1.9%−0.9
Green1.8%1.1%−0.7
People's1.0%0.6%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Simcoe—Grey and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 35098ON · 2025
Simcoe—Grey
Terry Dowdall
Result
Conservative hold by 5,909
Turnout
71.4%
Population
107,835
Area
2,545 km²
Population, smallest first: 107,835 people, 2021 census · 111th of 343 in Canada111thPopulation, smallest firstArea, largest first: 2,545 km² · 117th of 343 in Canada117thArea, largest firstTurnout: 71.4% of 95,606 electors voted · 121st of 343 in Canada121stTurnout
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

Open a neighbour to collect the next one.