The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35098Ontario

Simcoe—Grey

Simcoe—Grey is a federal riding in Ontario. Terry Dowdall (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Simcoe—Grey. Terry Dowdall (Conservative) held Simcoe—Grey for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 5,909 votes (8.7 points), with 52.1% of the vote. Bren Munro (Liberal) was second with 43.4%, on a turnout of 71.4% of 95,606 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Simcoe—Grey on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Simcoe—Grey

Terry Dowdall's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Terry Dowdall

Member of Parliament for Simcoe—Grey

Conservative

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

33 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget Implementation Act, No. 1.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Simcoe—Grey, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 67,907 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Terry Dowdall	Conservative	35,364	52.1%
Bren Munro	Liberal	29,455	43.4%
Jasleen Bains	New Democratic	1,574	2.3%
Allan Kuhn	Green	991	1.5%
Other (1)		523	0.8%

Terry Dowdall (Conservative) won Simcoe—Grey on April 28, 2025 with 35,364 votes, 52.1% of the 67,907 valid votes. Bren Munro (Liberal) was second with 29,455 (43.4%), 5,909 votes and 8.7 points behind.

Of the 67,907 valid votes, Terry Dowdall (Conservative) took 52.1%, Bren Munro (Liberal) 43.4%, Jasleen Bains (New Democratic) 2.3% and Allan Kuhn (Green) 1.5%; one other candidate took 0.8%. Turnout was 71.4% of 95,606 electors: 68,309 ballots cast, 67,907 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 4.9 (47.2% to 52.1%), the Liberals up 15.7 (27.7% to 43.4%), the New Democrats down 10.8 (13.1% to 2.3%) and the Greens down 2.6 (4.1% to 1.5%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Conservatives

The party first in Simcoe—Grey at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004†Conservative40.6%by 0.2 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative49.8%by 18.9 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative55.1%by 33.5 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative49.4%by 32.0 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative46.6%by 8.0 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative43.5%by 11.8 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative47.2%by 19.4 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative52.1%by 8.7 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004†	Conservative	40.6%	Liberal	0.2	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	49.8%	Liberal	18.9	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	55.1%	Liberal	33.5	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	49.4%	New Democratic	32.0	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	46.6%	Liberal	8.0	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	43.5%	Liberal	11.8	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	47.2%	Liberal	19.4	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	52.1%	Liberal	8.7	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 16.6 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Conservatives took 52.1% of the vote here, 4.7 points above their average of 47.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (40.6%), 2006 (49.8%), 2008 (55.1%), 2011 (49.4%), 2015 (46.6%), 2019 (43.5%), 2021 (47.2%) and 2025 (52.1%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Terry Dowdall, by 14,929 votes (19.5 pts)
2019 Conservative · Terry Dowdall, by 8,887 votes (11.8 pts)
2015 Conservative · Kellie Leitch, by 5,260 votes (8.0 pts)

In the old Simcoe—Grey on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Simcoe—Grey lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Simcoe—Grey is

Population: 107,8352021 census
Area: 2,545km²
Density: 42people per km²
Electors: 95,606on the 2025 lists

Median age is 48.4 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest38th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 82.1% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest41st highest of 343
Median total household income is $91,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest108th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 21.9% — about 78 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest118th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 2.0% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest138th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 13.1% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest145th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Simcoe—Grey, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Simcoe—Grey, but it is only 90% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Simcoe—Grey 100.0% of the area · 90% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Terry Dowdall	Conservative	35,364	52.1%	47.2%	+4.9
Bren Munro	Liberal	29,455	43.4%	27.7%	+15.7
Jasleen Bains	New Democratic	1,574	2.3%	13.1%	−10.8
Allan Kuhn	Green	991	1.5%	4.1%	−2.6

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Giorgio Mammoliti

People's

523

0.8%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,574 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 5,909-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

49 of 182

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (133) · ■ won by another party (49).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,955 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 4.4% of the 67,907 valid votes, 4.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 005,910

Conservative35,364

Liberal29,455

Still Conservative by 5,909 votes. Actual margin: 5,909.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 49.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 55.5%, the Liberals 38.9%, the New Democrats 2.8%, the Greens 1.8% and the People's Party 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 48.8%, 47.6%, 1.9%, 1.1% and 0.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Simcoe—Grey, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	55.5%	48.8%	−6.7
Liberal	38.9%	47.6%	+8.7
New Democratic	2.8%	1.9%	−0.9
Green	1.8%	1.1%	−0.7
People's Party	1.0%	0.6%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Simcoe—Grey and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Simcoe—Grey — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/simcoe-grey/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.