Skip to the record

The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35021Ontario

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Chatham-Kent—Leamington is a federal riding in Ontario. Dave Epp (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Chatham-Kent—Leamington. Dave Epp (Conservative) held Chatham-Kent—Leamington for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 15,634 votes (21.6 points), with 57.5% of the vote. Keith Pickard (Liberal) was second with 35.9%, on a turnout of 67.9% of 107,156 electors. Member as of .

Elgin—St. Thomas—London South · ConservativeEssex · ConservativeMiddlesex—London · ConservativeSarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong · LiberalChatham-Kent—Leamington
Fig. 1 — Chatham-Kent—Leamington on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Chatham-Kent—Leamington

CDave Epp
Dave Epp's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Dave Epp

Member of Parliament for Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Conservative

MP since · 3 terms

  • Agriculture and Agri-Food committee

99 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—GC Strategies Inc. — Main Estimates and Supplementary Estimates (A), 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Chatham-Kent—Leamington, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Chatham-Kent—Leamington, April 28, 2025Of the 72,351 valid votes, Dave Epp (Conservative) took 57.5%, Keith Pickard (Liberal) 35.9%, Seamus McInnis Fleming (New Democratic) 4.1%, Trevor Lee (People's Party) 1.5% and James Plunkett (Green) 1.0%.2025Turnout 67.9% of 107,156 electorsDave EppConservative57.5% · 41,61215,634 votes ahead · 21.6 ptsKeith PickardLiberal35.9% · 25,978Seamus McInnisFlemingNew Democratic4.1% · 2,943Trevor LeePeople's Party1.5% · 1,061James PlunkettGreen1.0% · 757050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Chatham-Kent—Leamington, April 28, 2025Of the 72,351 valid votes, Dave Epp (Conservative) took 57.5%, Keith Pickard (Liberal) 35.9%, Seamus McInnis Fleming (New Democratic) 4.1%, Trevor Lee (People's Party) 1.5% and James Plunkett (Green) 1.0%.2025Turnout 67.9% of 107,156 electorsDave EppConservative57.5% · 41,61215,634 votes ahead · 21.6 ptsKeith PickardLiberal35.9% · 25,978Seamus McInnis FlemingNew Democratic4.1% · 2,943Trevor LeePeople's Party1.5% · 1,061James PlunkettGreen1.0% · 757050%100%
Shares of the 72,351 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Dave EppConservative41,61257.5%
Keith PickardLiberal25,97835.9%
Seamus McInnis FlemingNew Democratic2,9434.1%
Trevor LeePeople's Party1,0611.5%
James PlunkettGreen7571.0%

Dave Epp (Conservative) won Chatham-Kent—Leamington on with 41,612 votes, 57.5% of the 72,351 valid votes. Keith Pickard (Liberal) was second with 25,978 (35.9%), 15,634 votes and 21.6 points behind.

Of the 72,351 valid votes, Dave Epp (Conservative) took 57.5%, Keith Pickard (Liberal) 35.9%, Seamus McInnis Fleming (New Democratic) 4.1%, Trevor Lee (People's Party) 1.5% and James Plunkett (Green) 1.0%. Turnout was 67.9% of 107,156 electors: 72,795 ballots cast, 72,351 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 15.4 (42.1% to 57.5%), the Liberals up 9.4 (26.5% to 35.9%), the New Democrats down 10.4 (14.5% to 4.1%), the People's Party down 13.1 (14.6% to 1.5%) and the Greens down 0.5 (1.5% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Conservative

The party first in Chatham-Kent—Leamington at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004†Liberal39.7%by 0.8 points over the Conservatives
  2. 2006changed handsConservative43.6%by 12.4 points over the Liberals
  3. 2008Conservative48.6%by 20.5 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011Conservative54.6%by 28.7 points over the New Democrats
  5. 2015Conservative43.4%by 7.7 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Conservative47.3%by 17.3 points over the Liberals
  7. 2021Conservative42.1%by 15.6 points over the Liberals
  8. 2025Conservative57.5%by 21.6 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004†Liberal39.7%Conservative0.8carried, our estimate
2006Conservative43.6%Liberal12.4carried, our estimate
2008Conservative48.6%Liberal20.5carried, our estimate
2011Conservative54.6%New Democratic28.7carried, our estimate
2015Conservative43.4%Liberal7.7carried, our estimate
2019Conservative47.3%Liberal17.3carried, our estimate
2021Conservative42.1%Liberal15.6transposed by Elections Canada
2025Conservative57.5%Liberal21.6official result

The Conservatives were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Liberals were first in 2004. In 2025 the Conservatives took 57.5% of the vote here, 12.0 points above their average of 45.5% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (39.7%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (43.6%), 2008 (48.6%), 2011 (54.6%), 2015 (43.4%), 2019 (47.3%), 2021 (42.1%) and 2025 (57.5%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Conservative · Dave Epp, by 6,752 votes (12.3 pts)
  • 2019 Conservative · Dave Epp, by 8,460 votes (15.7 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Dave Van Kesteren, by 2,326 votes (4.5 pts)

In the old Chatham-Kent—Leamington on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Chatham-Kent—Leamington lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Chatham-Kent—Leamington is

Population
134,2252021 census
Area
4,158km²
Density
32people per km²
Electors
107,156on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • 2nd-most populous in Canada: 134,225 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 3432nd
    2nd-most populous in Canada
    134,225 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 14.6% — about 52 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest25th lowest of 343
  • Median age is 45.2 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest78th highest of 343
  • Median total household income is $73,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest81st lowest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 12.6% — about 73 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest139th lowest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.9% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest141st highest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 71.5% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest168th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 80% of the 2025 electors in today's Chatham-Kent—Leamington lived in the old Chatham-Kent—Leamington; by area, 27% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
80.1%Chatham-Kent—Leamington 73.1% of the area · 91% of it kept
19.9%Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 26.5% of the area · 18% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Dave EppConservative41,61257.5%42.1%+15.4
Keith PickardLiberal25,97835.9%26.5%+9.4
Seamus McInnis FlemingNew Democratic2,9434.1%14.5%−10.4
Trevor LeePeople's1,0611.5%14.6%−13.1
James PlunkettGreen7571.0%1.5%−0.5
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
2,943 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 15,634-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
14 of 257
No poll ended in a tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (243) · ■ won by another party (14).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 7,818 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 10.8% of the 72,351 valid votes, 10.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative41,612
Liberal25,978
Still Conservative by 15,634 votes. Actual margin: 15,634.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 62.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 60.3%, the Liberals 32.5%, the New Democrats 4.4%, the People's Party 1.6% and the Greens 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 52.8%, 41.7%, 3.5%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Chatham-Kent—Leamington, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Chatham-Kent—Leamington, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 60.3%, the Liberals 32.5%, the New Democrats 4.4%, the People's Party 1.6% and the Greens 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 52.8%, 41.7%, 3.5%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative60.3%52.8%−7.5 ptsLiberal32.5%41.7%+9.2 ptsNew Democratic4.4%3.5%−0.9 ptsPeople's Party1.6%1.2%−0.4 ptsGreen1.2%0.8%−0.4 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Chatham-Kent—Leamington, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 60.3%, the Liberals 32.5%, the New Democrats 4.4%, the People's Party 1.6% and the Greens 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 52.8%, 41.7%, 3.5%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative60.3%52.8%−7.5 ptsLiberal32.5%41.7%+9.2 ptsNew Democratic4.4%3.5%−0.9 ptsPeople's Party1.6%1.2%−0.4 ptsGreen1.2%0.8%−0.4 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Conservative60.3%52.8%−7.5
Liberal32.5%41.7%+9.2
New Democratic4.4%3.5%−0.9
People's Party1.6%1.2%−0.4
Green1.2%0.8%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Chatham-Kent—Leamington and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Chatham-Kent—Leamington — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/chatham-kent-leamington/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.