The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South
Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud
Federal riding · ON · No. 35027 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Andrew Lawton Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 4,555 votes
- Turnout
- 68.8% of 95,033 electors
- Population
- 112,450 2021 census
- Area
- 3,344 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Closeness of the raceWon by 4,555 votes (7.0 pts) · 99th of 343 in Canada
- Area, largest first3,344 km² · 107th of 343 in Canada
- Turnout, lowest first68.8% of 95,033 electors voted · 146th of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Andrew Lawton held the seat for the Conservatives by 4,555 votes (+7.0 points).
- The riding shrank in 2023: it keeps 88% of the old Elgin—Middlesex—London.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 57.6% of votes were cast on the day.
- Share with French as a mother tongue is the 79th lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Andrew Lawton
- Member: Justice and Human Rights
- Member: Medical Assistance in Dying
IDid this riding change?
Yes — it shrank. All of today's Elgin—St. Thomas—London South comes from the old Elgin—Middlesex—London, but it is only 88% of that riding. The rest went elsewhere.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
100.0%Elgin—Middlesex—London 88% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Andrew Lawton
Conservative
32,565
50.1% of valid votes
Margin
4,555
votes · +7.0 pts
Runner-up
David Goodwin
Liberal
28,010
43.1% of valid votes
Conservative 50.1% · Liberal 43.1% · New Democratic 4.8% · People's 1.9%
Turnout68.8% of 95,033 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lawton | Conservative | 32,565 | 50.1% | 49.0% | +1.1 |
| David Goodwin | Liberal | 28,010 | 43.1% | 19.5% | +23.6 |
| Paul Pighin | New Democratic | 3,118 | 4.8% | 16.1% | −11.3 |
| Stephen Campbell | People's | 1,256 | 1.9% | 12.1% | −10.2 |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
3.5 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
3,118 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 4,555-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
36 of 140
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 2,278 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 3.5% of the 64,949 valid votes, 3.5 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative32,565
Liberal28,010
Still Conservative by 4,555 votes. Actual margin: 4,555.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 57.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative52.7%46.7%−6.0
Liberal39.5%48.0%+8.5
New Democratic5.6%3.8%−1.8
People's2.2%1.5%−0.7
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $85,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest153rd highest of 343
- Median age is 42.4 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest143rd highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.5% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest89th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 14.3% — about 83 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest158th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 75.9% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest110th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest79th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 35027ON · 2025
Elgin—St. Thomas—London South
Andrew Lawton
- Result
- Conservative hold by 4,555
- Turnout
- 68.8%
- Population
- 112,450
- Area
- 3,344 km²
Closeness of the raceArea, largest firstTurnout, lowest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.