The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35027Ontario

Elgin—St. Thomas—London South

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Elgin—St. Thomas—London South
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud

Elgin—St. Thomas—London South is a federal riding in Ontario. Andrew Lawton (Conservative) has represented Elgin—St. Thomas—London South since the 2025 election. Andrew Lawton (Conservative) held Elgin—St. Thomas—London South for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 4,555 votes (7.0 points), with 50.1% of the vote. David Goodwin (Liberal) was second with 43.1%, on a turnout of 68.8% of 95,033 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Elgin—St. Thomas—London South on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Elgin—St. Thomas—London South

Andrew Lawton's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Andrew Lawton

Member of Parliament for Elgin—St. Thomas—London South

Conservative

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Justice and Human Rights committee
Medical Assistance in Dying committee

345 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Main Estimates, 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 64,949 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Andrew Lawton	Conservative	32,565	50.1%
David Goodwin	Liberal	28,010	43.1%
Paul Pighin	New Democratic	3,118	4.8%
Stephen Campbell	People's Party	1,256	1.9%

Andrew Lawton (Conservative) won Elgin—St. Thomas—London South on April 28, 2025 with 32,565 votes, 50.1% of the 64,949 valid votes. David Goodwin (Liberal) was second with 28,010 (43.1%), 4,555 votes and 7.0 points behind.

Of the 64,949 valid votes, Andrew Lawton (Conservative) took 50.1%, David Goodwin (Liberal) 43.1%, Paul Pighin (New Democratic) 4.8% and Stephen Campbell (People's Party) 1.9%. Turnout was 68.8% of 95,033 electors: 65,366 ballots cast, 64,949 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 1.1 (49.0% to 50.1%), the Liberals up 23.6 (19.5% to 43.1%), the New Democrats down 11.3 (16.1% to 4.8%) and the People's Party down 10.2 (12.1% to 1.9%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Elgin—St. Thomas—London South at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative43.8%by 9.6 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative45.6%by 19.3 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative48.4%by 24.9 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative57.6%by 33.0 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative49.2%by 18.2 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative50.2%by 27.0 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative49.0%by 29.4 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative50.1%by 7.0 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	43.8%	Liberal	9.6	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	45.6%	Liberal	19.3	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	48.4%	Liberal	24.9	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	57.6%	New Democratic	33.0	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	49.2%	Liberal	18.2	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	50.2%	Liberal	27.0	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	49.0%	Liberal	29.4	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	50.1%	Liberal	7.0	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 21.1 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 50.1% of the vote here, 1.0 point above their average of 49.1% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (43.8%), 2006 (45.6%), 2008 (48.4%), 2011 (57.6%), 2015 (49.2%), 2019 (50.2%), 2021 (49.0%) and 2025 (50.1%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Karen Vecchio, by 19,146 votes (30.4 pts)
2019 Conservative · Karen Vecchio, by 16,702 votes (27.0 pts)
2015 Conservative · Karen Louise Vecchio, by 10,381 votes (18.2 pts)

In Elgin—Middlesex—London on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Elgin—St. Thomas—London South lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Elgin—St. Thomas—London South is

Population: 112,4502021 census
Area: 3,344km²
Density: 34people per km²
Electors: 95,033on the 2025 lists

Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest79th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.5% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest89th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 75.9% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest110th highest of 343
Median age is 42.4 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest143rd highest of 343
Median total household income is $85,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest153rd highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 14.3% — about 83 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest158th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Elgin—Middlesex—London, but it is only 88% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Elgin—Middlesex—London 100.0% of the area · 88% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Andrew Lawton	Conservative	32,565	50.1%	49.0%	+1.1
David Goodwin	Liberal	28,010	43.1%	19.5%	+23.6
Paul Pighin	New Democratic	3,118	4.8%	16.1%	−11.3
Stephen Campbell	People's	1,256	1.9%	12.1%	−10.2

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

3,118 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 4,555-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

36 of 140

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (104) · ■ won by another party (36).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,278 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 3.5% of the 64,949 valid votes, 3.5 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 004,556

Conservative32,565

Liberal28,010

Still Conservative by 4,555 votes. Actual margin: 4,555.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 57.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 39.5%, the Conservatives 52.7%, the New Democrats 5.6% and the People's Party 2.2%; in advance and special ballots, 48.0%, 46.7%, 3.8% and 1.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	39.5%	48.0%	+8.5
Conservative	52.7%	46.7%	−6.0
New Democratic	5.6%	3.8%	−1.8
People's Party	2.2%	1.5%	−0.7

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Elgin—St. Thomas—London South and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Elgin—St. Thomas—London South — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/elgin-st-thomas-london-south/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.