The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35038Ontario

Hamilton Mountain

Hamilton Mountain is a federal riding in Ontario. Lisa Hepfner (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2021) represents Hamilton Mountain. Lisa Hepfner (Liberal) held Hamilton Mountain for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 2,445 votes (4.1 points), with 45.6% of the vote. Ken Hewitt (Conservative) was second with 41.5%, on a turnout of 67.7% of 89,205 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Hamilton Mountain on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Hamilton Mountain

Lisa Hepfner's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Lisa Hepfner

Member of Parliament for Hamilton Mountain

Liberal

MP since 2021-09-20 · 2 terms

Chair, Canadian Heritage committee
Chair, Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Canadian Heritage committee
Liaison committee

44 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Keeping Children Safe Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Hamilton Mountain, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 59,893 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Lisa Hepfner	Liberal	27,302	45.6%
Ken Hewitt	Conservative	24,857	41.5%
Monique Taylor	New Democratic	7,044	11.8%
Others (2)		690	1.2%

Lisa Hepfner (Liberal) won Hamilton Mountain on April 28, 2025 with 27,302 votes, 45.6% of the 59,893 valid votes. Ken Hewitt (Conservative) was second with 24,857 (41.5%), 2,445 votes and 4.1 points behind.

Of the 59,893 valid votes, Lisa Hepfner (Liberal) took 45.6%, Ken Hewitt (Conservative) 41.5% and Monique Taylor (New Democratic) 11.8%; the 2 other candidates took 1.2% together. Turnout was 67.7% of 89,205 electors: 60,422 ballots cast, 59,893 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 11.4 (34.2% to 45.6%), the Conservatives up 16.7 (24.8% to 41.5%) and the New Democrats down 19.5 (31.3% to 11.8%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Hamilton Mountain at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004†Liberal34.8%by 1.9 points over the New Democrats
2006changed handsNew Democratic37.4%by 5.6 points over the Liberals
2008New Democratic43.7%by 13.0 points over the Conservatives
2011New Democratic47.2%by 14.1 points over the Conservatives
2015†New Democratic34.3%by 0.4 points over the Liberals
2019New Democratic34.7%by 3.9 points over the Liberals
2021changed handsLiberal34.2%by 2.9 points over the New Democrats
2025Liberal45.6%by 4.1 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004†	Liberal	34.8%	New Democratic	1.9	carried, our estimate
2006	New Democratic	37.4%	Liberal	5.6	carried, our estimate
2008	New Democratic	43.7%	Conservative	13.0	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	47.2%	Conservative	14.1	carried, our estimate
2015†	New Democratic	34.3%	Liberal	0.4	carried, our estimate
2019	New Democratic	34.7%	Liberal	3.9	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	34.2%	New Democratic	2.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	45.6%	Conservative	4.1	official result

The NDP were first at five of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at three; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 45.6% of the vote here, 16.8 points above their average of 28.8% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (34.8%), 2021 (34.2%) and 2025 (45.6%) and the NDP in 2006 (37.4%), 2008 (43.7%), 2011 (47.2%), 2015 (34.3%) and 2019 (34.7%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 and 2015 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Lisa Hepfner, by 842 votes (1.7 pts)
2019 New Democratic · Scott Duvall, by 3,078 votes (5.8 pts)
2015 New Democratic · Scott Duvall, by 1,213 votes (2.4 pts)

In the old Hamilton Mountain on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Hamilton Mountain lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Hamilton Mountain is

Population: 115,6352021 census
Area: 40km²
Density: 2,891people per km²
Electors: 89,205on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Decided before election day
On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 343

Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest101st lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 28.2% — about 1.6 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest113th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 67.9% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest132nd lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 23.7% — about 84 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest134th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $85,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest153rd highest of 343
Median age is 41.2 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest161st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 93% of the 2025 electors in today's Hamilton Mountain lived in the old Hamilton Mountain; by area, 13% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

92.8%Hamilton Mountain 87.4% of the area

7.2%Flamborough—Glanbrook 12.6% of the area · 1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Lisa Hepfner	Liberal	27,302	45.6%	34.2%	+11.4
Ken Hewitt	Conservative	24,857	41.5%	24.8%	+16.7
Monique Taylor	New Democratic	7,044	11.8%	31.3%	−19.5

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Bing Wong	People's	497	0.8%
Rolf Gerstenberger	Other	193	0.3%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

7,044 votes

New Democratic took more than the 2,445-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

110 of 165

2 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (53) · ■ won by another party (110) · ▨ tied (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,223 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 2.0% of the 59,893 valid votes, 2.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 002,446

Liberal27,302

Conservative24,857

Still Liberal by 2,445 votes. Actual margin: 2,445.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 63.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

On election day the Liberals took 41.9%, the Conservatives 44.4% and the New Democrats 12.4%; in advance and special ballots, 52.0%, 36.5% and 10.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Hamilton Mountain, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	41.9%	52.0%	+10.1
Conservative	44.4%	36.5%	−7.9
New Democratic	12.4%	10.7%	−1.7

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Hamilton Mountain and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Hamilton Mountain — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/hamilton-mountain/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.