The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Hamilton Mountain

Federal riding · ON · No. 35038 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Hamilton Mountain, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Lisa Hepfner Liberal
2025 result
Liberal hold by 2,445 votes
Turnout
67.7% of 89,205 electors
Population
115,635 2021 census
Area
40 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Decided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327
    Decided before election day
    On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 343
  • Area, smallest first: 40 km² · 51st of 343 in Canada51st
    Area, smallest first
    40 km² · 51st of 343 in Canada
  • Closeness of the race: Won by 2,445 votes (4.1 pts) · 52nd of 343 in Canada52nd
    Closeness of the race
    Won by 2,445 votes (4.1 pts) · 52nd of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Lisa Hepfner held the seat for the Liberals by 2,445 votes (+4.1 points).
  2. 13% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
  3. On election day alone, the Conservatives led; advance and special ballots decided it.
  4. Share with French as a mother tongue is the 101st lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Lisa Hepfner
Liberal · first elected 2021-09-20 · 2 terms
  • Chair: Canadian Heritage
  • Chair: Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
  • Member: Canadian Heritage
  • Member: Liaison
39 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Keeping Children Safe Act.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 13% of today's Hamilton Mountain came from ridings other than the old Hamilton Mountain.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
87.4%Hamilton Mountain
12.6%Flamborough—Glanbrook 1% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Liberal hold
Elected
Lisa Hepfner
Liberal
27,302
45.6% of valid votes
Margin
2,445
votes · +4.1 pts
Runner-up
Ken Hewitt
Conservative
24,857
41.5% of valid votes
Liberal 45.6% · Conservative 41.5% · New Democratic 11.8%
Turnout67.7% of 89,205 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Lisa HepfnerLiberal27,30245.6%34.2%+11.4
Ken HewittConservative24,85741.5%24.8%+16.7
Monique TaylorNew Democratic7,04411.8%31.3%−19.5
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Bing WongPeople's4970.8%
Rolf GerstenbergerOther1930.3%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
2.0 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
7,044 votes
New Democratic took more than the 2,445-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
110 of 165
2 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (53) · ■ won by another party (110) · ▨ tied (2).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,223 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 2.0% of the 59,893 valid votes, 2.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal27,302
Conservative24,857
Still Liberal by 2,445 votes. Actual margin: 2,445.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 63.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative44.4%36.5%−7.9
Liberal41.9%52.0%+10.1
New Democratic12.4%10.7%−1.7
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Hamilton Mountain and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 35038ON · 2025
Hamilton Mountain
Lisa Hepfner
Result
Liberal hold by 2,445
Turnout
67.7%
Population
115,635
Area
40 km²
Decided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327Decided before election dayArea, smallest first: 40 km² · 51st of 343 in Canada51stArea, smallest firstCloseness of the race: Won by 2,445 votes (4.1 pts) · 52nd of 343 in Canada52ndCloseness of the race
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

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