The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35036Ontario
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton-Centre
Hamilton Centre is a federal riding in Ontario. Aslam Rana (Liberal) has represented Hamilton Centre since the 2025 election. Aslam Rana (Liberal) took Hamilton Centre from the New Democrats in the 2025 election by 4,309 votes (7.6 points), with 37.6% of the vote. Hayden Lawrence (Conservative) was second with 30.0%, on a turnout of 62.3% of 92,179 electors. Member as of .
Who represents Hamilton Centre
Aslam Rana
Member of Parliament for Hamilton Centre
Liberal
MP since · first term
- Health committee
- Science and Research committee
42 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Strengthening Canada's Immigration System and Borders Act.
The 2025 result: Liberal gain from the New Democrats
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Hamilton Centre, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aslam Rana | Liberal | 21,388 | 37.6% |
| Hayden Lawrence | Conservative | 17,079 | 30.0% |
| Matthew Green | New Democratic | 16,581 | 29.1% |
| Sandy Crawley | Green | 818 | 1.4% |
| David Speicher | People's Party | 591 | 1.0% |
| Others (3) | 495 | 0.9% |
Aslam Rana (Liberal) won Hamilton Centre on with 21,388 votes, 37.6% of the 56,952 valid votes. Hayden Lawrence (Conservative) was second with 17,079 (30.0%), 4,309 votes and 7.6 points behind.
Of the 56,952 valid votes, Aslam Rana (Liberal) took 37.6%, Hayden Lawrence (Conservative) 30.0%, Matthew Green (New Democratic) 29.1%, Sandy Crawley (Green) 1.4% and David Speicher (People's Party) 1.0%; the 3 other candidates took 0.9% together. Turnout was 62.3% of 92,179 electors: 57,432 ballots cast, 56,952 of them valid, for 8 candidates.
Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 11.1 (26.5% to 37.6%), the Conservatives up 13.6 (16.4% to 30.0%), the New Democrats down 17.5 (46.6% to 29.1%), the Greens down 1.2 (2.6% to 1.4%) and the People's Party down 5.5 (6.5% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.
2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.
Since 2004: no party has held it
The party first in Hamilton Centre at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries
- 2004New Democratic43.2%by 8.4 points over the Liberals
- 2006New Democratic47.3%by 20.7 points over the Liberals
- 2008New Democratic47.1%by 24.3 points over the Conservatives
- 2011New Democratic53.8%by 24.9 points over the Conservatives
- 2015New Democratic43.3%by 8.8 points over the Liberals
- 2019New Democratic43.1%by 12.6 points over the Liberals
- 2021New Democratic46.6%by 20.1 points over the Liberals
- 2025changed handsLiberal37.6%by 7.6 points over the Conservatives
The figures
| Year | First | Share | Second | Margin (pts) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | New Democratic | 43.2% | Liberal | 8.4 | carried, our estimate |
| 2006 | New Democratic | 47.3% | Liberal | 20.7 | carried, our estimate |
| 2008 | New Democratic | 47.1% | Conservative | 24.3 | carried, our estimate |
| 2011 | New Democratic | 53.8% | Conservative | 24.9 | carried, our estimate |
| 2015 | New Democratic | 43.3% | Liberal | 8.8 | carried, our estimate |
| 2019 | New Democratic | 43.1% | Liberal | 12.6 | carried, our estimate |
| 2021 | New Democratic | 46.6% | Liberal | 20.1 | transposed by Elections Canada |
| 2025 | Liberal | 37.6% | Conservative | 7.6 | official result |
The NDP were first at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at one; it changed hands once. In 2025 the Liberals took 37.6% of the vote here, 10.9 points above their average of 26.7% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.
On today's boundaries the NDP were first here in 2004 (43.2%), 2006 (47.3%), 2008 (47.1%), 2011 (53.8%), 2015 (43.3%), 2019 (43.1%) and 2021 (46.6%) and the Liberals in 2025 (37.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.
A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.
- 2021 New Democratic · Matthew Green, by 9,164 votes (22.2 pts)
- 2019 New Democratic · Matthew Green, by 7,717 votes (17.5 pts)
- 2015 New Democratic · David Christopherson, by 5,001 votes (12.2 pts)
In the old Hamilton Centre on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Hamilton Centre lived in; Elections Canada's official results.
What kind of place Hamilton Centre is
- Population
- 126,1902021 census
- Area
- 66km²
- Density
- 1,912people per km²
- Electors
- 92,179on the 2025 lists
- Changed hands in 2025One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)
- Median total household income is $62,400 — about 74 percent of the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest25th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 44.3% — about 62 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest33rd lowest of 343
- Median age is 38.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest66th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 22.1% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest144th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest152nd lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 28.4% — about the same as the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest169th highest of 343
2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 82% of the 2025 electors in today's Hamilton Centre lived in the old Hamilton Centre; by area, 26% of the riding came from other ridings.
IIThe 2025 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aslam Rana | Liberal | 21,388 | 37.6% | 26.5% | +11.1 |
| Hayden Lawrence | Conservative | 17,079 | 30.0% | 16.4% | +13.6 |
| Matthew Green | New Democratic | 16,581 | 29.1% | 46.6% | −17.5 |
| Sandy Crawley | Green | 818 | 1.4% | 2.6% | −1.2 |
| David Speicher | People's | 591 | 1.0% | 6.5% | −5.5 |
3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Carla Green | Independent | 215 | 0.4% |
| Cody Chenier | Other | 190 | 0.3% |
| Michael Loomans | Independent | 90 | 0.2% |
IIIHow close was it, really
It would have taken 2,155 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 3.8% of the 56,952 valid votes, 3.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 68.4% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
On election day the Liberals took 35.5%, the New Democrats 28.8%, the Conservatives 32.0%, the Greens 1.5% and the People's Party 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 42.0%, 29.9%, 25.6%, 1.2% and 0.7%, in that order.
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Hamilton Centre, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Party | Election day | Advance and special | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 35.5% | 42.0% | +6.5 |
| New Democratic | 28.8% | 29.9% | +1.1 |
| Conservative | 32.0% | 25.6% | −6.4 |
| Green | 1.5% | 1.2% | −0.3 |
| People's Party | 1.2% | 0.7% | −0.5 |