The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton-Centre
Federal riding · ON · No. 35036 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Aslam Rana Liberal
- 2025 result
- Liberal gain by 4,309 votes
- Turnout
- 62.3% of 92,179 electors
- Population
- 126,190 2021 census
- Area
- 66 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Changed hands in 2025One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)
- Length of the ballot8 candidates stood · 11th of 343 in Canada
- Population, largest first126,190 people, 2021 census · 21st of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Aslam Rana
- Member: Health
- Member: Science and Research
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 26% of today's Hamilton Centre came from ridings other than the old Hamilton Centre.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
74.1%Hamilton Centre
22.3%Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 19% of it kept
3.6%Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 2% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Liberal gain
Elected
Aslam Rana
Liberal
21,388
37.6% of valid votes
Margin
4,309
votes · +7.6 pts
Runner-up
Hayden Lawrence
Conservative
17,079
30.0% of valid votes
Liberal 37.6% · Conservative 30.0% · New Democratic 29.1% · Green 1.4% · People's 1.0%
Turnout62.3% of 92,179 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aslam Rana | Liberal | 21,388 | 37.6% | 26.5% | +11.1 |
| Hayden Lawrence | Conservative | 17,079 | 30.0% | 16.4% | +13.6 |
| Matthew Green | New Democratic | 16,581 | 29.1% | 46.6% | −17.5 |
| Sandy Crawley | Green | 818 | 1.4% | 2.6% | −1.2 |
| David Speicher | People's | 591 | 1.0% | 6.5% | −5.5 |
3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Carla Green | Independent | 215 | 0.4% |
| Cody Chenier | Other | 190 | 0.3% |
| Michael Loomans | Independent | 90 | 0.2% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
3.8 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
16,581 votes
New Democratic took more than the 4,309-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
104 of 198
4 polls ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 2,155 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 3.8% of the 56,952 valid votes, 3.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Liberal21,388
Conservative17,079
Still Liberal by 4,309 votes. Actual margin: 4,309.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 68.4% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal35.5%42.0%+6.5
Conservative32.0%25.6%−6.4
New Democratic28.8%29.9%+1.1
Green1.5%1.2%−0.3
People's1.2%0.7%−0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $62,400 — about 74 percent of the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest25th lowest of 343
- Median age is 38.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest66th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 28.4% — about the same as the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest169th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 22.1% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest144th highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 44.3% — about 62 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest33rd lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest152nd lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 35036ON · 2025
Hamilton Centre
Aslam Rana
- Result
- Liberal gain by 4,309
- Turnout
- 62.3%
- Population
- 126,190
- Area
- 66 km²
Changed hands in 2025Length of the ballotPopulation, largest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.