The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 46004Manitoba

Kildonan—St. Paul

Kildonan—St. Paul is a federal riding in Manitoba. Raquel Dancho (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Kildonan—St. Paul. Raquel Dancho (Conservative) held Kildonan—St. Paul for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 1,556 votes (2.8 points), with 47.5% of the vote. Thomas Naaykens (Liberal) was second with 44.7%, on a turnout of 71.9% of 77,758 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Kildonan—St. Paul on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Kildonan—St. Paul

Raquel Dancho's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Raquel Dancho

Member of Parliament for Kildonan—St. Paul

Conservative

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

Industry and Technology committee
Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Vice-Chair, Industry and Technology committee

80 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Automotive Industry.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Kildonan—St. Paul, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 55,521 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Raquel Dancho	Conservative	26,364	47.5%
Thomas Naaykens	Liberal	24,808	44.7%
Emily Clark	New Democratic	3,863	7.0%
Other (1)		486	0.9%

Raquel Dancho (Conservative) won Kildonan—St. Paul on April 28, 2025 with 26,364 votes, 47.5% of the 55,521 valid votes. Thomas Naaykens (Liberal) was second with 24,808 (44.7%), 1,556 votes and 2.8 points behind.

Of the 55,521 valid votes, Raquel Dancho (Conservative) took 47.5%, Thomas Naaykens (Liberal) 44.7% and Emily Clark (New Democratic) 7.0%; one other candidate took 0.9%. Turnout was 71.9% of 77,758 electors: 55,872 ballots cast, 55,521 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 5.4 (42.1% to 47.5%), the Liberals up 17.0 (27.7% to 44.7%) and the New Democrats down 16.6 (23.6% to 7.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Conservative

The party first in Kildonan—St. Paul at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative38.7%by 3.8 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative44.3%by 13.1 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative53.8%by 22.0 points over the New Democrats
2011Conservative58.7%by 28.9 points over the New Democrats
2015†changed handsLiberal41.6%by 0.7 points over the Conservatives
2019changed handsConservative46.2%by 20.1 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative42.1%by 14.4 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative47.5%by 2.8 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	38.7%	Liberal	3.8	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	44.3%	Liberal	13.1	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	53.8%	New Democratic	22.0	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	58.7%	New Democratic	28.9	carried, our estimate
2015†	Liberal	41.6%	Conservative	0.7	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	46.2%	Liberal	20.1	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	42.1%	Liberal	14.4	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	47.5%	Liberal	2.8	official result

The Conservatives were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Liberals were first in 2015. In 2025 the Conservatives took 47.5% of the vote here, 1.1 points above their average of 46.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (38.7%), 2006 (44.3%), 2008 (53.8%), 2011 (58.7%), 2019 (46.2%), 2021 (42.1%) and 2025 (47.5%) and the Liberals in 2015 (41.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2015 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Raquel Dancho, by 5,441 votes (12.4 pts)
2019 Conservative · Raquel Dancho, by 7,500 votes (16.9 pts)
2015 Liberal · MaryAnn Mihychuk, by 1,239 votes (2.9 pts)

In the old Kildonan—St. Paul on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Kildonan—St. Paul lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Kildonan—St. Paul is

Population: 99,6202021 census
Area: 301km²
Density: 331people per km²
Electors: 77,758on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-closest race in Manitoba
Won by 1,556 votes (2.8 pts) · 2nd of 14 in Manitoba · 33rd of 343 in Canada

Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest101st lowest of 343
Median total household income is $90,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest112th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 22.5% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest141st highest of 343
Median age is 42.4 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest143rd highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 31.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest147th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 71.8% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest164th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 89% of the 2025 electors in today's Kildonan—St. Paul lived in the old Kildonan—St. Paul; by area, 43% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

88.6%Kildonan—St. Paul 56.6% of the area · 99% of it kept

8.0%Provencher 42.8% of the area · 1% of it kept

3.4%Elmwood—Transcona 0.6% of the area · 4% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Raquel Dancho	Conservative	26,364	47.5%	42.1%	+5.4
Thomas Naaykens	Liberal	24,808	44.7%	27.7%	+17.0
Emily Clark	New Democratic	3,863	7.0%	23.6%	−16.6

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Erik Holmes

People's

486

0.9%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

3,863 votes

New Democratic took more than the 1,556-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

75 of 185

3 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (107) · ■ won by another party (75) · ▨ tied (3).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 779 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 1.4% of the 55,521 valid votes, 1.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 001,558

Conservative26,364

Liberal24,808

Still Conservative by 1,556 votes. Actual margin: 1,556.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.9% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 42.4%, the Conservatives 48.5% and the New Democrats 8.0%; in advance and special ballots, 47.5%, 46.2% and 5.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Kildonan—St. Paul, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	42.4%	47.5%	+5.1
Conservative	48.5%	46.2%	−2.3
New Democratic	8.0%	5.6%	−2.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Kildonan—St. Paul and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Kildonan—St. Paul — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/kildonan-st-paul/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.