The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Kildonan—St. Paul
Federal riding · MB · No. 46004 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Raquel Dancho Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 1,556 votes
- Turnout
- 71.9% of 77,758 electors
- Population
- 99,620 2021 census
- Area
- 301 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Closest race in ManitobaWon by 1,556 votes (2.8 pts) · 2nd of 14 in Manitoba · 33rd of 343 in Canada
- Population, smallest first99,620 people, 2021 census · 71st of 343 in Canada
- Turnout71.9% of 77,758 electors voted · 104th of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Raquel Dancho held the seat for the Conservatives by 1,556 votes (+2.8 points).
- 43% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 55.9% of votes were cast on the day.
- Share with French as a mother tongue is the 101st lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Raquel Dancho
- Member: Industry and Technology
- Member: Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
- Vice-Chair: Industry and Technology
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 43% of today's Kildonan—St. Paul came from ridings other than the old Kildonan—St. Paul.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
56.6%Kildonan—St. Paul 99% of it kept
42.8%Provencher 1% of it kept
0.6%Elmwood—Transcona 4% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Raquel Dancho
Conservative
26,364
47.5% of valid votes
Margin
1,556
votes · +2.8 pts
Runner-up
Thomas Naaykens
Liberal
24,808
44.7% of valid votes
Conservative 47.5% · Liberal 44.7% · New Democratic 7.0%
Turnout71.9% of 77,758 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Dancho | Conservative | 26,364 | 47.5% | 42.1% | +5.4 |
| Thomas Naaykens | Liberal | 24,808 | 44.7% | 27.7% | +17.0 |
| Emily Clark | New Democratic | 3,863 | 7.0% | 23.6% | −16.6 |
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
| Erik Holmes | People's | 486 | 0.9% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
1.4 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
3,863 votes
New Democratic took more than the 1,556-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
75 of 185
3 polls ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 779 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 1.4% of the 55,521 valid votes, 1.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative26,364
Liberal24,808
Still Conservative by 1,556 votes. Actual margin: 1,556.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 55.9% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative48.5%46.2%−2.3
Liberal42.4%47.5%+5.1
New Democratic8.0%5.6%−2.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $90,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest112th highest of 343
- Median age is 42.4 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest143rd highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 31.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest147th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 22.5% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest141st highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 71.8% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest164th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest101st lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 46004MB · 2025
Kildonan—St. Paul
Raquel Dancho
- Result
- Conservative hold by 1,556
- Turnout
- 71.9%
- Population
- 99,620
- Area
- 301 km²
Closest race in ManitobaPopulation, smallest firstTurnout
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.