The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 46006Manitoba

Provencher

Provencher is a federal riding in Manitoba. Ted Falk (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2013) represents Provencher. Ted Falk (Conservative) held Provencher for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 20,970 votes (40.4 points), with 66.3% of the vote. Trevor Kirczenow (Liberal) was second with 25.9%, on a turnout of 70.5% of 74,061 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Provencher on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Provencher

Ted Falk's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Ted Falk

Member of Parliament for Provencher

Conservative

MP since 2013-11-25 · 5 terms

Industry and Technology committee

104 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Provencher, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 51,803 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Ted Falk	Conservative	34,364	66.3%
Trevor Kirczenow	Liberal	13,394	25.9%
Brandy Schmidt	New Democratic	2,398	4.6%
Noël Gautron	People's Party	942	1.8%
Blair Mahaffy	Green	705	1.4%

Ted Falk (Conservative) won Provencher on April 28, 2025 with 34,364 votes, 66.3% of the 51,803 valid votes. Trevor Kirczenow (Liberal) was second with 13,394 (25.9%), 20,970 votes and 40.4 points behind.

Of the 51,803 valid votes, Ted Falk (Conservative) took 66.3%, Trevor Kirczenow (Liberal) 25.9%, Brandy Schmidt (New Democratic) 4.6%, Noël Gautron (People's Party) 1.8% and Blair Mahaffy (Green) 1.4%. Turnout was 70.5% of 74,061 electors: 52,186 ballots cast, 51,803 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 18.3 (48.0% to 66.3%), the Liberals up 9.5 (16.4% to 25.9%), the New Democrats down 7.5 (12.1% to 4.6%), the People's Party down 15.6 (17.4% to 1.8%) and the Greens down 1.1 (2.5% to 1.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Provencher at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative62.6%by 37.8 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative65.3%by 49.6 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative64.6%by 50.6 points over the New Democrats
2011Conservative70.5%by 52.4 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative56.1%by 21.4 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative65.9%by 52.8 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative48.0%by 30.6 points over the People's Party
2025Conservative66.3%by 40.4 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	62.6%	Liberal	37.8	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	65.3%	Liberal	49.6	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	64.6%	New Democratic	50.6	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	70.5%	New Democratic	52.4	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	56.1%	Liberal	21.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	65.9%	Liberal	52.8	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	48.0%	People's	30.6	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	66.3%	Liberal	40.4	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 41.9 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 66.3% of the vote here, 4.4 points above their average of 61.9% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (62.6%), 2006 (65.3%), 2008 (64.6%), 2011 (70.5%), 2015 (56.1%), 2019 (65.9%), 2021 (48.0%) and 2025 (66.3%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Ted Falk, by 15,823 votes (31.7 pts)
2019 Conservative · Ted Falk, by 25,474 votes (52.8 pts)
2015 Conservative · Ted Falk, by 9,577 votes (21.4 pts)

In the old Provencher on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Provencher lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Provencher is

Population: 100,3202021 census
Area: 18,519km²
Density: 5.4people per km²
Electors: 74,061on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Most populous in Manitoba
100,320 people, 2021 census · 1st of 14 in Manitoba · 269th of 343 in Canada
3rd-widest margin in Manitoba
Won by 40.4 points (20,970 votes) · 3rd of 14 in Manitoba · 46th of 343 in Canada

Median age is 35.6 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest26th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 80.4% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest55th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 17.1% — about 61 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest58th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 8.2% — about 5.1 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest96th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 13.1% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest145th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $86,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest147th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Provencher, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Provencher, but it is only 99% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Provencher 100.0% of the area · 99% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Ted Falk	Conservative	34,364	66.3%	48.0%	+18.3
Trevor Kirczenow	Liberal	13,394	25.9%	16.4%	+9.5
Brandy Schmidt	New Democratic	2,398	4.6%	12.1%	−7.5
Noël Gautron	People's	942	1.8%	17.4%	−15.6
Blair Mahaffy	Green	705	1.4%	2.5%	−1.1

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,398 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 20,970-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

2 of 163

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (161) · ■ won by another party (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 10,486 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 20.2% of the 51,803 valid votes, 20.2 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0020,972

Conservative34,364

Liberal13,394

Still Conservative by 20,970 votes. Actual margin: 20,970.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 63.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 68.1%, the Liberals 23.5%, the New Democrats 4.9%, the People's Party 2.0% and the Greens 1.5%; in advance and special ballots, 63.2%, 30.0%, 4.1%, 1.6% and 1.1%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Provencher, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	68.1%	63.2%	−4.9
Liberal	23.5%	30.0%	+6.5
New Democratic	4.9%	4.1%	−0.8
People's Party	2.0%	1.6%	−0.4
Green	1.5%	1.1%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Provencher and its 8 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Provencher — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/provencher/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.