The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Provencher
Federal riding · MB · No. 46006 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Ted Falk Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 20,970 votes
- Turnout
- 70.5% of 74,061 electors
- Population
- 100,320 2021 census
- Area
- 18,519 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Most populous in Manitoba100,320 people, 2021 census · 1st of 14 in Manitoba · 269th of 343 in Canada
- Widest margin in ManitobaWon by 40.4 points (20,970 votes) · 3rd of 14 in Manitoba · 46th of 343 in Canada
- Area, largest first18,519 km² · 55th of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Ted Falk
- Member: Industry and Technology
IDid this riding change?
Yes — it shrank. All of today's Provencher comes from the old Provencher, but it is only 99% of that riding. The rest went elsewhere.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
100.0%Provencher 99% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Ted Falk
Conservative
34,364
66.3% of valid votes
Margin
20,970
votes · +40.4 pts
Runner-up
Trevor Kirczenow
Liberal
13,394
25.9% of valid votes
Conservative 66.3% · Liberal 25.9% · New Democratic 4.6% · People's 1.8% · Green 1.4%
Turnout70.5% of 74,061 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Falk | Conservative | 34,364 | 66.3% | 48.0% | +18.3 |
| Trevor Kirczenow | Liberal | 13,394 | 25.9% | 16.4% | +9.5 |
| Brandy Schmidt | New Democratic | 2,398 | 4.6% | 12.1% | −7.5 |
| Noël Gautron | People's | 942 | 1.8% | 17.4% | −15.6 |
| Blair Mahaffy | Green | 705 | 1.4% | 2.5% | −1.1 |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
20.2 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,398 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 20,970-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
2 of 163
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 10,486 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 20.2% of the 51,803 valid votes, 20.2 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative34,364
Liberal13,394
Still Conservative by 20,970 votes. Actual margin: 20,970.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 63.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative68.1%63.2%−4.9
Liberal23.5%30.0%+6.5
New Democratic4.9%4.1%−0.8
People's2.0%1.6%−0.4
Green1.5%1.1%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $86,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest147th highest of 343
- Median age is 35.6 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest26th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 17.1% — about 61 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest58th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 13.1% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest145th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 80.4% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest55th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 8.2% — about 5.1 times the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest96th highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 46006MB · 2025
Provencher
Ted Falk
- Result
- Conservative hold by 20,970
- Turnout
- 70.5%
- Population
- 100,320
- Area
- 18,519 km²
Most populous in ManitobaWidest margin in ManitobaArea, largest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.