The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35050Ontario
Kitchener South—
Kitchener-Sud—
Kitchener South—
Who represents Kitchener South—
Matt Strauss
Member of Parliament for Kitchener South—
Conservative
MP since · first term
- Health committee
105 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Health.
The 2025 result: Conservative gain from the Liberals
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Kitchener South—Hespeler, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Strauss | Conservative | 28,973 | 47.9% |
| Valerie Bradford | Liberal | 27,945 | 46.2% |
| Lorne Bruce | New Democratic | 1,823 | 3.0% |
| Ethan Russell | Green | 1,208 | 2.0% |
| Others (2) | 482 | 0.8% |
Matt Strauss (Conservative) won Kitchener South—
Of the 60,431 valid votes, Matt Strauss (Conservative) took 47.9%, Valerie Bradford (Liberal) 46.2%, Lorne Bruce (New Democratic) 3.0% and Ethan Russell (Green) 2.0%; the 2 other candidates took 0.8% together. Turnout was 70.1% of 86,781 electors: 60,791 ballots cast, 60,431 of them valid, for 6 candidates.
Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 12.7 (35.2% to 47.9%), the Liberals up 9.1 (37.1% to 46.2%), the New Democrats down 13.1 (16.1% to 3.0%) and the Greens down 1.4 (3.4% to 2.0%), in points of the valid votes.
2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.
Since 2004: no party has held it
The party first in Kitchener South—Hespeler at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries
- 2004Liberal41.2%by 6.0 points over the Conservatives
- 2006changed handsConservative41.2%by 3.6 points over the Liberals
- 2008Conservative48.2%by 22.8 points over the Liberals
- 2011Conservative53.0%by 29.7 points over the New Democrats
- 2015changed handsLiberal42.3%by 5.6 points over the Conservatives
- 2019Liberal40.2%by 6.7 points over the Conservatives
- 2021Liberal37.1%by 1.9 points over the Conservatives
- 2025changed handsConservative47.9%by 1.7 points over the Liberals
The figures
| Year | First | Share | Second | Margin (pts) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Liberal | 41.2% | Conservative | 6.0 | carried, our estimate |
| 2006 | Conservative | 41.2% | Liberal | 3.6 | carried, our estimate |
| 2008 | Conservative | 48.2% | Liberal | 22.8 | carried, our estimate |
| 2011 | Conservative | 53.0% | New Democratic | 29.7 | carried, our estimate |
| 2015 | Liberal | 42.3% | Conservative | 5.6 | carried, our estimate |
| 2019 | Liberal | 40.2% | Conservative | 6.7 | carried, our estimate |
| 2021 | Liberal | 37.1% | Conservative | 1.9 | transposed by Elections Canada |
| 2025 | Conservative | 47.9% | Liberal | 1.7 | official result |
The Liberals were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at four; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 47.9% of the vote here, 7.5 points above their average of 40.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.
On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (41.2%), 2015 (42.3%), 2019 (40.2%) and 2021 (37.1%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (41.2%), 2008 (48.2%), 2011 (53.0%) and 2025 (47.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.
A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.
- 2021 Liberal · Valerie Bradford, by 947 votes (2.0 pts)
- 2019 Liberal · Marwan Tabbara, by 3,506 votes (6.7 pts)
- 2015 Liberal · Marwan Tabbara, by 2,671 votes (5.6 pts)
In the old Kitchener South—Hespeler on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Kitchener South—Hespeler lived in; Elections Canada's official results.
What kind of place Kitchener South—
- Population
- 119,8502021 census
- Area
- 111km²
- Density
- 1,076people per km²
- Electors
- 86,781on the 2025 lists
- Changed hands in 2025One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)
- Boundaries unchanged in 2023Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors
- Median age is 36.8 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest40th lowest of 343
- Median total household income is $96,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest85th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest101st lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 29.6% — about 1.7 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest110th highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 67.1% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest125th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 32.9% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest137th highest of 343
2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.
IDid this riding change?
Essentially no. Today's Kitchener South—Hespeler covers almost exactly the same ground as the Kitchener South—Hespeler riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.
IIThe 2025 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Strauss | Conservative | 28,973 | 47.9% | 35.2% | +12.7 |
| Valerie Bradford | Liberal | 27,945 | 46.2% | 37.1% | +9.1 |
| Lorne Bruce | New Democratic | 1,823 | 3.0% | 16.1% | −13.1 |
| Ethan Russell | Green | 1,208 | 2.0% | 3.4% | −1.4 |
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Randall Williams | People's | 386 | 0.6% |
| Kathleen Dueck | Other | 96 | 0.2% |
IIIHow close was it, really
It would have taken 515 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 0.9% of the 60,431 valid votes, 0.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 54.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
On election day the Liberals took 43.2%, the Conservatives 49.9%, the New Democrats 3.4% and the Greens 2.5%; in advance and special ballots, 49.9%, 45.5%, 2.6% and 1.3%, in that order.
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Kitchener South—Hespeler, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Party | Election day | Advance and special | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 43.2% | 49.9% | +6.7 |
| Conservative | 49.9% | 45.5% | −4.4 |
| New Democratic | 3.4% | 2.6% | −0.8 |
| Green | 2.5% | 1.3% | −1.2 |