The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 13005New Brunswick

Madawaska—Restigouche

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Madawaska—Restigouche
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Madawaska—Restigouche is a federal riding in New Brunswick. Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault (Liberal) has represented Madawaska—Restigouche since the 2025 election. Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault (Liberal) held Madawaska—Restigouche for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 6,400 votes (15.6 points), with 55.2% of the vote. Michel Morin (Conservative) was second with 39.6%, on a turnout of 70.1% of 59,312 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Madawaska—Restigouche on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Madawaska—Restigouche

Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault

Member of Parliament for Madawaska—Restigouche

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Official Languages committee
Science and Research committee
Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure

316 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Safe Social Media Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Madawaska—Restigouche, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 41,178 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault	Liberal	22,720	55.2%
Michel Morin	Conservative	16,320	39.6%
Daisy Petersen	New Democratic	1,251	3.0%
Nancy Mercier	People's Party	887	2.2%

Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault (Liberal) won Madawaska—Restigouche on April 28, 2025 with 22,720 votes, 55.2% of the 41,178 valid votes. Michel Morin (Conservative) was second with 16,320 (39.6%), 6,400 votes and 15.6 points behind.

Of the 41,178 valid votes, Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault (Liberal) took 55.2%, Michel Morin (Conservative) 39.6%, Daisy Petersen (New Democratic) 3.0% and Nancy Mercier (People's Party) 2.2%. Turnout was 70.1% of 59,312 electors: 41,576 ballots cast, 41,178 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 3.9 (51.3% to 55.2%), the Conservatives up 12.2 (27.4% to 39.6%), the New Democrats down 3.1 (6.1% to 3.0%) and the People's Party down 5.2 (7.4% to 2.2%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Madawaska—Restigouche at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal45.3%by 18.8 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal38.8%by 2.0 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal43.2%by 6.1 points over the Conservatives
2011changed handsConservative44.3%by 12.3 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal54.3%by 30.6 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal46.5%by 14.8 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal51.3%by 23.9 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal55.2%by 15.6 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	45.3%	Conservative	18.8	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	38.8%	Conservative	2.0	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	43.2%	Conservative	6.1	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	44.3%	Liberal	12.3	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	54.3%	New Democratic	30.6	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	46.5%	Conservative	14.8	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	51.3%	Conservative	23.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	55.2%	Conservative	15.6	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Conservatives were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 55.2% of the vote here, 10.7 points above their average of 44.5% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (45.3%), 2006 (38.8%), 2008 (43.2%), 2015 (54.3%), 2019 (46.5%), 2021 (51.3%) and 2025 (55.2%) and the Conservatives in 2011 (44.3%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · René Arseneault, by 8,962 votes (29.4 pts)
2019 Liberal · René Arseneault, by 7,530 votes (21.9 pts)
2015 Liberal · René Arseneault, by 11,108 votes (29.8 pts)

In the old Madawaska—Restigouche on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Madawaska—Restigouche lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Madawaska—Restigouche is

Population: 70,5602021 census
Area: 13,722km²
Density: 5.1people per km²
Electors: 59,312on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-lowest turnout in New Brunswick
70.1% of 59,312 electors voted · 2nd of 10 in New Brunswick · 187th of 343 in Canada
3rd-largest by area in New Brunswick
13,722 km² · 3rd of 10 in New Brunswick · 61st of 343 in Canada
3rd-least populous in New Brunswick
70,560 people, 2021 census · 3rd of 10 in New Brunswick · 13th of 343 in Canada

Median age is 52.4 — about 1.3 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest12th highest of 343
Median total household income is $60,800 — about 72 percent of the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest18th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 2.8% — about 16 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest26th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 15.8% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest43rd lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 78.3% — about 48.9 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest48th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 74.0% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest136th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 85% of the 2025 electors in today's Madawaska—Restigouche lived in the old Madawaska—Restigouche; by area, 10% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

84.8%Madawaska—Restigouche 90.1% of the area

15.2%Tobique—Mactaquac 9.2% of the area · 9% of it kept

0.0%Miramichi—Grand Lake 0.7% of the area · 1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault	Liberal	22,720	55.2%	51.3%	+3.9
Michel Morin	Conservative	16,320	39.6%	27.4%	+12.2
Daisy Petersen	New Democratic	1,251	3.0%	6.1%	−3.1
Nancy Mercier	People's	887	2.2%	7.4%	−5.2

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,251 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 6,400-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

62 of 149

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (86) · ■ won by another party (62) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 3,201 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 7.8% of the 41,178 valid votes, 7.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 006,402

Liberal22,720

Conservative16,320

Still Liberal by 6,400 votes. Actual margin: 6,400.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 50.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 49.1%, the Conservatives 45.1%, the New Democrats 3.2% and the People's Party 2.6%; in advance and special ballots, 61.4%, 34.1%, 2.8% and 1.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Madawaska—Restigouche, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	49.1%	61.4%	+12.3
Conservative	45.1%	34.1%	−11.0
New Democratic	3.2%	2.8%	−0.4
People's Party	2.6%	1.7%	−0.9

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Madawaska—Restigouche and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Madawaska—Restigouche — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/madawaska-restigouche/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.