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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35035Ontario

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes is a federal riding in Ontario. Jamie Schmale (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes. Jamie Schmale (Conservative) held Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 13,478 votes (17.9 points), with 56.6% of the vote. Nell Thomas (Liberal) was second with 38.7%, on a turnout of 72.7% of 104,455 electors. Member as of .

Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke · ConservativeBowmanville—Oshawa North · ConservativeHastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga · ConservativeNipissing—Timiskaming · LiberalNorthumberland—Clarke · ConservativeParry Sound—Muskoka · ConservativePeterborough · LiberalSimcoe North · ConservativeYork—Durham · ConservativeHaliburton—Kawartha Lakes
Fig. 1 — Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes

CJamie Schmale
Jamie Schmale's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Jamie Schmale

Member of Parliament for Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes

Conservative

MP since · 4 terms

  • Indigenous and Northern Affairs committee
  • Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
  • Vice-Chair, Indigenous and Northern Affairs committee

107 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes, April 28, 2025Of the 75,503 valid votes, Jamie Schmale (Conservative) took 56.6%, Nell Thomas (Liberal) 38.7%, Alyea Teel (New Democratic) 3.5% and Michael Penman (People's Party) 1.3%.2025Turnout 72.7% of 104,455 electorsJamie SchmaleConservative56.6% · 42,70113,478 votes ahead · 17.9 ptsNell ThomasLiberal38.7% · 29,223Alyea TeelNew Democratic3.5% · 2,625Michael PenmanPeople's Party1.3% · 954050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes, April 28, 2025Of the 75,503 valid votes, Jamie Schmale (Conservative) took 56.6%, Nell Thomas (Liberal) 38.7%, Alyea Teel (New Democratic) 3.5% and Michael Penman (People's Party) 1.3%.2025Turnout 72.7% of 104,455 electorsJamie SchmaleConservative56.6% · 42,70113,478 votes ahead · 17.9 ptsNell ThomasLiberal38.7% · 29,223Alyea TeelNew Democratic3.5% · 2,625Michael PenmanPeople's Party1.3% · 954050%100%
Shares of the 75,503 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jamie SchmaleConservative42,70156.6%
Nell ThomasLiberal29,22338.7%
Alyea TeelNew Democratic2,6253.5%
Michael PenmanPeople's Party9541.3%

Jamie Schmale (Conservative) won Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes on with 42,701 votes, 56.6% of the 75,503 valid votes. Nell Thomas (Liberal) was second with 29,223 (38.7%), 13,478 votes and 17.9 points behind.

Of the 75,503 valid votes, Jamie Schmale (Conservative) took 56.6%, Nell Thomas (Liberal) 38.7%, Alyea Teel (New Democratic) 3.5% and Michael Penman (People's Party) 1.3%. Turnout was 72.7% of 104,455 electors: 75,954 ballots cast, 75,503 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 5.0 (51.6% to 56.6%), the Liberals up 15.0 (23.7% to 38.7%), the New Democrats down 10.6 (14.1% to 3.5%) and the People's Party down 5.5 (6.8% to 1.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Conservative44.2%by 9.7 points over the Liberals
  2. 2006Conservative49.0%by 20.3 points over the Liberals
  3. 2008Conservative56.0%by 35.5 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011Conservative60.0%by 38.0 points over the New Democrats
  5. 2015Conservative44.0%by 11.2 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Conservative47.9%by 20.8 points over the Liberals
  7. 2021Conservative51.6%by 27.9 points over the Liberals
  8. 2025Conservative56.6%by 17.9 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Conservative44.2%Liberal9.7carried, our estimate
2006Conservative49.0%Liberal20.3carried, our estimate
2008Conservative56.0%Liberal35.5carried, our estimate
2011Conservative60.0%New Democratic38.0carried, our estimate
2015Conservative44.0%Liberal11.2carried, our estimate
2019Conservative47.9%Liberal20.8carried, our estimate
2021Conservative51.6%Liberal27.9transposed by Elections Canada
2025Conservative56.6%Liberal17.9official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 22.7 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 56.6% of the vote here, 6.2 points above their average of 50.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (44.2%), 2006 (49.0%), 2008 (56.0%), 2011 (60.0%), 2015 (44.0%), 2019 (47.9%), 2021 (51.6%) and 2025 (56.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Conservative · Jamie Schmale, by 19,773 votes (29.2 pts)
  • 2019 Conservative · Jamie Schmale, by 15,190 votes (23.1 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Jamie Schmale, by 8,084 votes (13.0 pts)

In Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes is

Population
119,1502021 census
Area
10,380km²
Density
11people per km²
Electors
104,455on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • 7th-oldest median age: Median age 53.6, 7th highest of 343 (Median age, 2021 census)7th
    7th-oldest median age
    Median age 53.6, 7th highest of 343 (Median age, 2021 census)
  • Median age is 53.6 — about 1.3 times the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest7th highest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 85.3% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest13th highest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 17.2% — about 61 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest59th lowest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest79th lowest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 8.1% — about 47 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest97th lowest of 343
  • Median total household income is $82,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest167th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 92% of the 2025 electors in today's Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes lived in the old Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock; by area, 18% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
91.7%Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 82.0% of the area · 95% of it kept
8.3%Peterborough—Kawartha 18.0% of the area · 54% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Jamie SchmaleConservative42,70156.6%51.6%+5.0
Nell ThomasLiberal29,22338.7%23.7%+15.0
Alyea TeelNew Democratic2,6253.5%14.1%−10.6
Michael PenmanPeople's9541.3%6.8%−5.5
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
2,625 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 13,478-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
14 of 263
2 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (247) · ■ won by another party (14) · ▨ tied (2).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 6,740 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 8.9% of the 75,503 valid votes, 8.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative42,701
Liberal29,223
Still Conservative by 13,478 votes. Actual margin: 13,478.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 56.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 60.4%, the Liberals 33.8%, the New Democrats 4.2% and the People's Party 1.6%; in advance and special ballots, 51.4%, 45.1%, 2.5% and 0.9%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 60.4%, the Liberals 33.8%, the New Democrats 4.2% and the People's Party 1.6%; in advance and special ballots, 51.4%, 45.1%, 2.5% and 0.9%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative60.4%51.4%−9.0 ptsLiberal33.8%45.1%+11.3 ptsNew Democratic4.2%2.5%−1.7 ptsPeople's Party1.6%0.9%−0.7 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 60.4%, the Liberals 33.8%, the New Democrats 4.2% and the People's Party 1.6%; in advance and special ballots, 51.4%, 45.1%, 2.5% and 0.9%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative60.4%51.4%−9.0 ptsLiberal33.8%45.1%+11.3 ptsNew Democratic4.2%2.5%−1.7 ptsPeople's Party1.6%0.9%−0.7 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Conservative60.4%51.4%−9.0
Liberal33.8%45.1%+11.3
New Democratic4.2%2.5%−1.7
People's Party1.6%0.9%−0.7
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes and its 9 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/haliburton-kawartha-lakes/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.