95 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation Act.
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 18% of today's Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes came from ridings other than the old Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
82.0%Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 95% of it kept
18.0%Peterborough—Kawartha 54% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Jamie Schmale
Conservative
42,701
56.6% of valid votes
Margin
13,478
votes · +17.9 pts
Runner-up
Nell Thomas
Liberal
29,223
38.7% of valid votes
Conservative 56.6% · Liberal 38.7% · New Democratic 3.5% · People's 1.3%
Turnout72.7% of 104,455 electors
Candidate
Party
Votes
%
2021
±
Jamie Schmale
Conservative
42,701
56.6%
51.6%
+5.0
Nell Thomas
Liberal
29,223
38.7%
23.7%
+15.0
Alyea Teel
New Democratic
2,625
3.5%
14.1%
−10.6
Michael Penman
People's
954
1.3%
6.8%
−5.5
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
8.9 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,625 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 13,478-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
14 of 263
2 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (247) · ■ won by another party (14) · ▨ tied (2).
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 6,740 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 8.9% of the 75,503 valid votes, 8.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative42,701
Liberal29,223
Still Conservative by 13,478 votes. Actual margin: 13,478.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 56.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative60.4%51.4%−9.0
Liberal33.8%45.1%+11.3
New Democratic4.2%2.5%−1.7
People's1.6%0.9%−0.7
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
Median total household income is $82,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest167th lowest of 343
Median age is 53.6 — about 1.3 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest7th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 17.2% — about 61 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest59th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 8.1% — about 47 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest97th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 85.3% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest13th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest79th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes and its 9 neighbouring ridings.
Oldest median ageArea, largest firstPopulation, largest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
