The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35092Ontario

Scarborough—Agincourt

Scarborough—Agincourt is a federal riding in Ontario. Jean Yip (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2017) represents Scarborough—Agincourt. Jean Yip (Liberal) held Scarborough—Agincourt for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 5,820 votes (11.5 points), with 54.3% of the vote. Aris Movsessian (Conservative) was second with 42.8%, on a turnout of 60.8% of 84,229 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Scarborough—Agincourt on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Scarborough—Agincourt

Jean Yip's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Jean Yip

Member of Parliament for Scarborough—Agincourt

Liberal

MP since 2017-12-11 · 4 terms

Public Accounts committee
Vice-Chair, Public Accounts committee

15 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Mid-Autumn Festival.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Scarborough—Agincourt, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 50,733 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Jean Yip	Liberal	27,552	54.3%
Aris Movsessian	Conservative	21,732	42.8%
Dan Lovell	New Democratic	1,449	2.9%

Jean Yip (Liberal) won Scarborough—Agincourt on April 28, 2025 with 27,552 votes, 54.3% of the 50,733 valid votes. Aris Movsessian (Conservative) was second with 21,732 (42.8%), 5,820 votes and 11.5 points behind.

Of the 50,733 valid votes, Jean Yip (Liberal) took 54.3%, Aris Movsessian (Conservative) 42.8% and Dan Lovell (New Democratic) 2.9%. Turnout was 60.8% of 84,229 electors: 51,199 ballots cast, 50,733 of them valid, for 3 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are down 1.3 (55.6% to 54.3%), the Conservatives up 13.9 (28.9% to 42.8%) and the New Democrats down 7.1 (10.0% to 2.9%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Liberal stronghold

The party first in Scarborough—Agincourt at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal62.6%by 40.5 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal61.2%by 36.5 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal55.3%by 25.6 points over the Conservatives
2011Liberal43.7%by 9.1 points over the Conservatives
2015Liberal51.8%by 13.9 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal50.5%by 13.7 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal55.6%by 26.8 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal54.3%by 11.5 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	62.6%	Conservative	40.5	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	61.2%	Conservative	36.5	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	55.3%	Conservative	25.6	carried, our estimate
2011	Liberal	43.7%	Conservative	9.1	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	51.8%	Conservative	13.9	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	50.5%	Conservative	13.7	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	55.6%	Conservative	26.8	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	54.3%	Conservative	11.5	official result

The Liberals were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 22.2 points over the next party. In 2025 the Liberals took 54.3% of the vote here, 0.1 points below their average of 54.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021. The Liberals have been first here at every general election since 1988, twelve in a row.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (62.6%), 2006 (61.2%), 2008 (55.3%), 2011 (43.7%), 2015 (51.8%), 2019 (50.5%), 2021 (55.6%) and 2025 (54.3%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Jean Yip, by 10,082 votes (27.5 pts)
2019 Liberal · Jean Yip, by 5,623 votes (13.5 pts)
2015 Liberal · Arnold Chan, by 5,785 votes (13.9 pts)

In the old Scarborough—Agincourt on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Scarborough—Agincourt lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Scarborough—Agincourt is

Population: 123,9752021 census
Area: 28km²
Density: 4,460people per km²
Electors: 84,229on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-largest immigrant share
63.0% are immigrants, 2nd highest of 343 (Share who are immigrants, 2021 census)

Share who are immigrants is 63.0% — about 3.6 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest2nd highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.7% — about 44 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest48th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 42.9% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest81st highest of 343
Median age is 44.4 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest87th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 66.0% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest114th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $78,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest128th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 84% of the 2025 electors in today's Scarborough—Agincourt lived in the old Scarborough—Agincourt; by area, 20% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

83.9%Scarborough—Agincourt 80.5% of the area

16.1%Don Valley North 19.5% of the area · 21% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Jean Yip	Liberal	27,552	54.3%	55.6%	−1.3
Aris Movsessian	Conservative	21,732	42.8%	28.9%	+13.9
Dan Lovell	New Democratic	1,449	2.9%	10.0%	−7.1

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,449 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 5,820-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

63 of 184

3 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (118) · ■ won by another party (63) · ▨ tied (3).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,911 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 5.7% of the 50,733 valid votes, 5.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 005,822

Liberal27,552

Conservative21,732

Still Liberal by 5,820 votes. Actual margin: 5,820.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 57.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 51.2%, the Conservatives 45.7% and the New Democrats 3.1%; in advance and special ballots, 58.6%, 38.9% and 2.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Scarborough—Agincourt, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	51.2%	58.6%	+7.4
Conservative	45.7%	38.9%	−6.8
New Democratic	3.1%	2.5%	−0.6

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Scarborough—Agincourt and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Scarborough—Agincourt — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/scarborough-agincourt/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.