The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Scarborough Southwest

Scarborough-Sud-Ouest
Federal riding · ON · No. 35096 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Scarborough Southwest, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Doly Begum Liberal
2025 result
Liberal hold by 16,843 votes
Turnout
63.3% of 86,452 electors
Population
122,870 2021 census
Area
34 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Length of the ballot: 7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada24th
    Length of the ballot
    7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada
  • Population, largest first: 122,870 people, 2021 census · 39th of 343 in Canada39th
    Population, largest first
    122,870 people, 2021 census · 39th of 343 in Canada
  • Area, smallest first: 34 km² · 42nd of 343 in Canada42nd
    Area, smallest first
    34 km² · 42nd of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Bill Blair held the seat for the Liberals by 16,843 votes (+30.9 points).
  2. 6% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
  3. Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 59.7% of votes were cast on the day.
  4. Share who are immigrants is the 40th highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Doly Begum
Liberal · first elected 2026-04-13 · first term
  • Member: Industry and Technology
  • Member: Justice and Human Rights
8 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—Elimination of the Streaming Tax.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 6% of today's Scarborough Southwest came from ridings other than the old Scarborough Southwest.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
93.7%Scarborough Southwest
6.1%Scarborough—Guildwood 8% of it kept
0.1%Beaches—East York 0% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Liberal hold
Elected
Bill Blair
Liberal
33,495
61.5% of valid votes
Margin
16,843
votes · +30.9 pts
Runner-up
Asm Tarun
Conservative
16,652
30.6% of valid votes
Liberal 61.5% · Conservative 30.6% · New Democratic 5.0% · Green 1.4% · People's 1.0%
Turnout63.3% of 86,452 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Bill BlairLiberal33,49561.5%57.5%+4.0
Asm TarunConservative16,65230.6%20.4%+10.2
Fatima ShabanNew Democratic2,7305.0%15.9%−10.9
Amanda CainGreen7541.4%2.2%−0.8
Michael PoulinPeople's5671.0%2.9%−1.9
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Imran KhanOther1650.3%
Christine NugentOther1130.2%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
15.4 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,730 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 16,843-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
3 of 175
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (171) · ■ won by another party (3) · ▨ tied (1).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 8,422 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 15.5% of the 54,476 valid votes, 15.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal33,495
Conservative16,652
Still Liberal by 16,843 votes. Actual margin: 16,843.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 59.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal59.1%65.1%+6.0
Conservative32.2%28.1%−4.1
New Democratic5.4%4.5%−0.9
Green1.5%1.2%−0.3
People's1.3%0.7%−0.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Scarborough Southwest and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 35096ON · 2025
Scarborough Southwest
Doly Begum
Result
Liberal hold by 16,843
Turnout
63.3%
Population
122,870
Area
34 km²
Length of the ballot: 7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada24thLength of the ballotPopulation, largest first: 122,870 people, 2021 census · 39th of 343 in Canada39thPopulation, largest firstArea, smallest first: 34 km² · 42nd of 343 in Canada42ndArea, smallest first
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

Open a neighbour to collect the next one.