The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35096Ontario

Scarborough Southwest

Name: Scarborough Southwest by-election, 2026-04-13
Start: 2026-04-13
End: 2026-04-13

Scarborough-Sud-Ouest

Scarborough Southwest is a federal riding in Ontario. Doly Begum (Liberal) has represented Scarborough Southwest since the by-election of 2026-04-13. Doly Begum held the seat for the Liberals at the by-election of 2026-04-13 by 14,688 votes (50.8 points) with 69.6% of the vote. Bill Blair (Liberal) held Scarborough Southwest for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 16,843 votes (30.9 points), with 61.5% of the vote. Asm Tarun (Conservative) was second with 30.6%, on a turnout of 63.3% of 86,452 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Scarborough Southwest on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Scarborough Southwest

Doly Begum's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Doly Begum

Member of Parliament for Scarborough Southwest

Liberal

MP since the by-election of 2026-04-13 · first term

Industry and Technology committee
Justice and Human Rights committee

25 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Canadian Fuel Affordability Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Scarborough Southwest, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 54,476 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Bill Blair	Liberal	33,495	61.5%
Asm Tarun	Conservative	16,652	30.6%
Fatima Shaban	New Democratic	2,730	5.0%
Amanda Cain	Green	754	1.4%
Michael Poulin	People's Party	567	1.0%
Others (2)		278	0.5%

Bill Blair (Liberal) won Scarborough Southwest on April 28, 2025 with 33,495 votes, 61.5% of the 54,476 valid votes. Asm Tarun (Conservative) was second with 16,652 (30.6%), 16,843 votes and 30.9 points behind.

Of the 54,476 valid votes, Bill Blair (Liberal) took 61.5%, Asm Tarun (Conservative) 30.6%, Fatima Shaban (New Democratic) 5.0%, Amanda Cain (Green) 1.4% and Michael Poulin (People's Party) 1.0%; the 2 other candidates took 0.5% together. Turnout was 63.3% of 86,452 electors: 54,740 ballots cast, 54,476 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 4.0 (57.5% to 61.5%), the Conservatives up 10.2 (20.4% to 30.6%), the New Democrats down 10.9 (15.9% to 5.0%), the Greens down 0.8 (2.2% to 1.4%) and the People's Party down 1.9 (2.9% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Scarborough Southwest at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal50.6%by 26.9 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal48.6%by 23.9 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal43.0%by 13.4 points over the Conservatives
2011†changed handsNew Democratic33.9%by 1.7 points over the Conservatives
2015changed handsLiberal53.1%by 30.4 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal57.5%by 36.7 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal57.5%by 37.1 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal61.5%by 30.9 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	50.6%	Conservative	26.9	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	48.6%	Conservative	23.9	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	43.0%	Conservative	13.4	carried, our estimate
2011†	New Democratic	33.9%	Conservative	1.7	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	53.1%	New Democratic	30.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	57.5%	Conservative	36.7	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	57.5%	Conservative	37.1	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	61.5%	Conservative	30.9	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the NDP were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 61.5% of the vote here, 12.9 points above their average of 48.6% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (50.6%), 2006 (48.6%), 2008 (43.0%), 2015 (53.1%), 2019 (57.5%), 2021 (57.5%) and 2025 (61.5%) and the NDP in 2011 (33.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2011 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Bill Blair, by 15,842 votes (36.7 pts)
2019 Liberal · Bill Blair, by 18,463 votes (36.5 pts)
2015 Liberal · Bill Blair, by 14,012 votes (28.8 pts)

In the old Scarborough Southwest on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Scarborough Southwest lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Scarborough Southwest is

Population: 122,8702021 census
Area: 34km²
Density: 3,593people per km²
Electors: 86,452on the 2025 lists

Share who are immigrants is 46.7% — about 2.7 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest40th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 54.3% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest61st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest101st lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 38.9% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest107th highest of 343
Median total household income is $79,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest136th lowest of 343
Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 92% of the 2025 electors in today's Scarborough Southwest lived in the old Scarborough Southwest; by area, 6% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

91.9%Scarborough Southwest 93.7% of the area

8.1%Scarborough—Guildwood 6.1% of the area · 8% of it kept

0.0%Beaches—East York 0.1% of the area · 0.3% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Bill Blair	Liberal	33,495	61.5%	57.5%	+4.0
Asm Tarun	Conservative	16,652	30.6%	20.4%	+10.2
Fatima Shaban	New Democratic	2,730	5.0%	15.9%	−10.9
Amanda Cain	Green	754	1.4%	2.2%	−0.8
Michael Poulin	People's	567	1.0%	2.9%	−1.9

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Imran Khan	Other	165	0.3%
Christine Nugent	Other	113	0.2%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

The by-election of 2026-04-13Liberal hold

Doly Begum (Liberal) held Scarborough Southwest for the Liberals at the by-election of 2026-04-13 by 14,688 votes (50.8 points) with 69.6% of the vote; Diana Filipova (Conservative) was second with 18.8%.

Elected: Doly Begum Liberal · 20,121 votes · 69.6%
Runner-up: Diana Filipova Conservative · 5,433 votes · 18.8%
Margin: 14,688 votes 50.8 pts · of 28,909 valid votes
Turnout: 33.7% of 86,158 electors · 89 rejected ballots

The Liberal share here was 69.6% at the by-election of 2026-04-13 and 61.5% in the 2025 election, with 8 candidates on the ballot.

Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, read 2026-10-08. Every candidate and the full result →

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,730 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 16,843-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

3 of 175

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (171) · ■ won by another party (3) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 8,422 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 15.5% of the 54,476 valid votes, 15.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0016,844

Liberal33,495

Conservative16,652

Still Liberal by 16,843 votes. Actual margin: 16,843.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 59.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 59.1%, the Conservatives 32.2%, the New Democrats 5.4%, the Greens 1.5% and the People's Party 1.3%; in advance and special ballots, 65.1%, 28.1%, 4.5%, 1.2% and 0.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Scarborough Southwest, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	59.1%	65.1%	+6.0
Conservative	32.2%	28.1%	−4.1
New Democratic	5.4%	4.5%	−0.9
Green	1.5%	1.2%	−0.3
People's Party	1.3%	0.7%	−0.6

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Scarborough Southwest and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Scarborough Southwest — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/scarborough-southwest/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.