8 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—Elimination of the Streaming Tax.
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 6% of today's Scarborough Southwest came from ridings other than the old Scarborough Southwest.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
93.7%Scarborough Southwest
6.1%Scarborough—Guildwood 8% of it kept
0.1%Beaches—East York 0% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Liberal hold
Elected
Bill Blair
Liberal
33,495
61.5% of valid votes
Margin
16,843
votes · +30.9 pts
Runner-up
Asm Tarun
Conservative
16,652
30.6% of valid votes
Liberal 61.5% · Conservative 30.6% · New Democratic 5.0% · Green 1.4% · People's 1.0%
Turnout63.3% of 86,452 electors
Candidate
Party
Votes
%
2021
±
Bill Blair
Liberal
33,495
61.5%
57.5%
+4.0
Asm Tarun
Conservative
16,652
30.6%
20.4%
+10.2
Fatima Shaban
New Democratic
2,730
5.0%
15.9%
−10.9
Amanda Cain
Green
754
1.4%
2.2%
−0.8
Michael Poulin
People's
567
1.0%
2.9%
−1.9
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Imran Khan
Other
165
0.3%
Christine Nugent
Other
113
0.2%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
15.4 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,730 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 16,843-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
3 of 175
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (171) · ■ won by another party (3) · ▨ tied (1).
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 8,422 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 15.5% of the 54,476 valid votes, 15.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Liberal33,495
Conservative16,652
Still Liberal by 16,843 votes. Actual margin: 16,843.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 59.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal59.1%65.1%+6.0
Conservative32.2%28.1%−4.1
New Democratic5.4%4.5%−0.9
Green1.5%1.2%−0.3
People's1.3%0.7%−0.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
Median total household income is $79,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest136th lowest of 343
Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 38.9% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest107th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 46.7% — about 2.7 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest40th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 54.3% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest61st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest101st lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Scarborough Southwest and its 4 neighbouring ridings.
Length of the ballotPopulation, largest firstArea, smallest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.