The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35093Ontario

Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est

Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East is a federal riding in Ontario. Salma Zahid (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East. Salma Zahid (Liberal) held Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 9,250 votes (19.2 points), with 57.3% of the vote. Belent Mathew (Conservative) was second with 38.1%, on a turnout of 61.9% of 78,512 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

Salma Zahid's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Salma Zahid

Member of Parliament for Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

Liberal

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Chair, Science and Research committee
Chair, Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Liaison committee
Science and Research committee

43 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Building Canada Strong Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 48,088 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Salma Zahid	Liberal	27,557	57.3%
Belent Mathew	Conservative	18,307	38.1%
Alyson Koa	New Democratic	1,565	3.3%
Peter Koubakis	People's Party	659	1.4%

Salma Zahid (Liberal) won Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East on April 28, 2025 with 27,557 votes, 57.3% of the 48,088 valid votes. Belent Mathew (Conservative) was second with 18,307 (38.1%), 9,250 votes and 19.2 points behind.

Of the 48,088 valid votes, Salma Zahid (Liberal) took 57.3%, Belent Mathew (Conservative) 38.1%, Alyson Koa (New Democratic) 3.3% and Peter Koubakis (People's Party) 1.4%. Turnout was 61.9% of 78,512 electors: 48,576 ballots cast, 48,088 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 1.6 (55.7% to 57.3%), the Conservatives up 13.1 (25.0% to 38.1%), the New Democrats down 10.3 (13.6% to 3.3%) and the People's Party down 2.8 (4.2% to 1.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal55.2%by 29.7 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal54.2%by 26.2 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal47.9%by 17.4 points over the Conservatives
2011changed handsConservative35.8%by 3.0 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal53.8%by 22.7 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal57.3%by 34.3 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal55.7%by 30.6 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal57.3%by 19.2 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	55.2%	Conservative	29.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	54.2%	Conservative	26.2	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	47.9%	Conservative	17.4	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	35.8%	Liberal	3.0	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	53.8%	Conservative	22.7	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	57.3%	Conservative	34.3	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	55.7%	Conservative	30.6	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	57.3%	Conservative	19.2	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Conservatives were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 57.3% of the vote here, 6.3 points above their average of 51.0% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (55.2%), 2006 (54.2%), 2008 (47.9%), 2015 (53.8%), 2019 (57.3%), 2021 (55.7%) and 2025 (57.3%) and the Conservatives in 2011 (35.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Salma Zahid, by 13,309 votes (33.2 pts)
2019 Liberal · Salma Zahid, by 15,308 votes (32.9 pts)
2015 Liberal · Salma Zahid, by 8,048 votes (17.8 pts)

In Scarborough Centre on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East is

Population: 111,3752021 census
Area: 31km²
Density: 3,570people per km²
Electors: 78,512on the 2025 lists

Share who are immigrants is 52.7% — about 3.0 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest23rd highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 49.1% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest45th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 38.4% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest111th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.1% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest112th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $79,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343
Median age is 41.2 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest161st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 54% of the 2025 electors in today's Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East lived in the old Scarborough Centre; by area, 40% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

54.2%Scarborough Centre 59.9% of the area · 63% of it kept

45.8%Don Valley East 40.1% of the area · 52% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Salma Zahid	Liberal	27,557	57.3%	55.7%	+1.6
Belent Mathew	Conservative	18,307	38.1%	25.0%	+13.1
Alyson Koa	New Democratic	1,565	3.3%	13.6%	−10.3
Peter Koubakis	People's	659	1.4%	4.2%	−2.8

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,565 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 9,250-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

32 of 188

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (155) · ■ won by another party (32) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 4,626 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 9.6% of the 48,088 valid votes, 9.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 009,252

Liberal27,557

Conservative18,307

Still Liberal by 9,250 votes. Actual margin: 9,250.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 61.4% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 54.5%, the Conservatives 40.4%, the New Democrats 3.5% and the People's Party 1.6%; in advance and special ballots, 61.8%, 34.4%, 2.8% and 1.0%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	54.5%	61.8%	+7.3
Conservative	40.4%	34.4%	−6.0
New Democratic	3.5%	2.8%	−0.7
People's Party	1.6%	1.0%	−0.6

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/scarborough-centre-don-valley-east/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.