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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35104Ontario

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt is a federal riding in Ontario. Jim Bélanger (Conservative) has represented Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt since the 2025 election. Jim Belanger (Conservative) took Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt from the Liberals in the 2025 election by 4,081 votes (6.7 points), with 48.3% of the vote. Marc G. Serré (Liberal) was second with 41.6%, on a turnout of 70.1% of 86,550 electors. Member as of .

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound · ConservativeKapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk · ConservativeNipissing—Timiskaming · LiberalParry Sound—Muskoka · ConservativeSault Ste. Marie—Algoma · LiberalSudbury · LiberalSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt
Fig. 1 — Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

CJim Bélanger
Jim Bélanger's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Jim Bélanger

Member of Parliament for Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

Conservative

MP since · first term

  • Official Languages committee

65 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Canadian Fuel Affordability Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative gain from the Liberals

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, April 28, 2025Of the 60,323 valid votes, Jim Belanger (Conservative) took 48.3%, Marc G. Serré (Liberal) 41.6% and Andréane Chénier (New Democratic) 8.0%; the 3 other candidates took 2.1% together.2025Turnout 70.1% of 86,550 electorsJim BelangerConservative48.3% · 29,1564,081 votes ahead · 6.8 ptsMarc G. SerréLiberal41.6% · 25,075Andréane ChénierNew Democratic8.0% · 4,822Others (3)2.1% · 1,270050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, April 28, 2025Of the 60,323 valid votes, Jim Belanger (Conservative) took 48.3%, Marc G. Serré (Liberal) 41.6% and Andréane Chénier (New Democratic) 8.0%; the 3 other candidates took 2.1% together.2025Turnout 70.1% of 86,550 electorsJim BelangerConservative48.3% · 29,1564,081 votes ahead · 6.8 ptsMarc G. SerréLiberal41.6% · 25,075Andréane ChénierNew Democratic8.0% · 4,822Others (3)2.1% · 1,270050%100%
Shares of the 60,323 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Jim BelangerConservative29,15648.3%
Marc G. SerréLiberal25,07541.6%
Andréane ChénierNew Democratic4,8228.0%
Others (3)1,2702.1%

Jim Belanger (Conservative) won Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt on with 29,156 votes, 48.3% of the 60,323 valid votes. Marc G. Serré (Liberal) was second with 25,075 (41.6%), 4,081 votes and 6.7 points behind.

Of the 60,323 valid votes, Jim Belanger (Conservative) took 48.3%, Marc G. Serré (Liberal) 41.6% and Andréane Chénier (New Democratic) 8.0%; the 3 other candidates took 2.1% together. Turnout was 70.1% of 86,550 electors: 60,686 ballots cast, 60,323 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 21.6 (26.7% to 48.3%), the Liberals up 9.8 (31.8% to 41.6%) and the New Democrats down 22.1 (30.1% to 8.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Liberal42.2%by 8.4 points over the New Democrats
  2. 2006Liberal42.2%by 4.6 points over the New Democrats
  3. 2008changed handsNew Democratic45.9%by 18.3 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011New Democratic54.2%by 25.7 points over the Conservatives
  5. 2015changed handsLiberal40.9%by 2.9 points over the New Democrats
  6. 2019†Liberal35.6%by 1.4 points over the New Democrats
  7. 2021Liberal31.8%by 1.6 points over the New Democrats
  8. 2025changed handsConservative48.3%by 6.7 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Liberal42.2%New Democratic8.4carried, our estimate
2006Liberal42.2%New Democratic4.6carried, our estimate
2008New Democratic45.9%Liberal18.3carried, our estimate
2011New Democratic54.2%Conservative25.7carried, our estimate
2015Liberal40.9%New Democratic2.9carried, our estimate
2019†Liberal35.6%New Democratic1.4carried, our estimate
2021Liberal31.8%New Democratic1.6transposed by Elections Canada
2025Conservative48.3%Liberal6.7official result

The Liberals were first at five of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the NDP at two and the Conservatives at one; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 48.3% of the vote here, 26.6 points above their average of 21.7% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (42.2%), 2006 (42.2%), 2015 (40.9%), 2019 (35.6%) and 2021 (31.8%), the NDP in 2008 (45.9%) and 2011 (54.2%) and the Conservatives in 2025 (48.3%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2019 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Liberal · Marc G. Serré, by 3,928 votes (8.0 pts)
  • 2019 Liberal · Marc G Serré, by 3,390 votes (6.9 pts)
  • 2015 Liberal · Marc G. Serré, by 2,465 votes (5.0 pts)

In Nickel Belt on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt is

Population
99,8352021 census
Area
45,433km²
Density
2.2people per km²
Electors
86,550on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Changed hands in 2025: One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)58
    Changed hands in 2025
    One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 14.7% — about 52 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest26th lowest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 3.0% — about 17 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest29th lowest of 343
  • Median age is 47.6 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest41st highest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 31.0% — about 19.4 times the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest79th highest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 77.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest86th highest of 343
  • Median total household income is $83,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest171st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 73% of the 2025 electors in today's Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt lived in the old Nickel Belt; by area, 33% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
73.2%Nickel Belt 67.4% of the area · 98% of it kept
23.5%Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing 30.2% of the area · 11% of it kept
3.3%Sudbury 1.5% of the area · 70% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Jim BelangerConservative29,15648.3%26.7%+21.6
Marc G. SerréLiberal25,07541.6%31.8%+9.8
Andréane ChénierNew Democratic4,8228.0%30.1%−22.1
3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Sharilynne St. LouisPeople's4890.8%
Himal HossainGreen4650.8%
Justin Dean Newell LerouxOther3160.5%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
4,822 votes
New Democratic took more than the 4,081-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
41 of 226
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (184) · ■ won by another party (41) · ▨ tied (1).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,041 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 3.4% of the 60,323 valid votes, 3.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative29,156
Liberal25,075
Still Conservative by 4,081 votes. Actual margin: 4,081.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 54.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 37.5%, the Conservatives 51.3% and the New Democrats 8.7%; in advance and special ballots, 46.5%, 44.8% and 7.1%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 37.5%, the Conservatives 51.3% and the New Democrats 8.7%; in advance and special ballots, 46.5%, 44.8% and 7.1%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal37.5%46.5%+9.0 ptsConservative51.3%44.8%−6.5 ptsNew Democratic8.7%7.1%−1.6 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 37.5%, the Conservatives 51.3% and the New Democrats 8.7%; in advance and special ballots, 46.5%, 44.8% and 7.1%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal37.5%46.5%+9.0 ptsConservative51.3%44.8%−6.5 ptsNew Democratic8.7%7.1%−1.6 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Liberal37.5%46.5%+9.0
Conservative51.3%44.8%−6.5
New Democratic8.7%7.1%−1.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/sudbury-east-manitoulin-nickel-belt/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.