The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt
Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt
Federal riding · ON · No. 35104 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Jim Bélanger Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative gain by 4,081 votes
- Turnout
- 70.1% of 86,550 electors
- Population
- 99,835 2021 census
- Area
- 45,433 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Changed hands in 2025One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)
- Area, largest first45,433 km² · 30th of 343 in Canada
- Length of the ballot6 candidates stood · 61st of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Jim Belanger took the seat for the Conservatives by 4,081 votes (+6.7 points).
- 33% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 54.6% of votes were cast on the day.
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is the 26th lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Jim Bélanger
- Member: Official Languages
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 33% of today's Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt came from ridings other than the old Nickel Belt.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
67.4%Nickel Belt 98% of it kept
30.2%Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing 11% of it kept
1.5%Sudbury 70% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative gain
Elected
Jim Belanger
Conservative
29,156
48.3% of valid votes
Margin
4,081
votes · +6.7 pts
Runner-up
Marc G. Serré
Liberal
25,075
41.6% of valid votes
Conservative 48.3% · Liberal 41.6% · New Democratic 8.0%
Turnout70.1% of 86,550 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Belanger | Conservative | 29,156 | 48.3% | 26.7% | +21.6 |
| Marc G. Serré | Liberal | 25,075 | 41.6% | 31.8% | +9.8 |
| Andréane Chénier | New Democratic | 4,822 | 8.0% | 30.1% | −22.1 |
3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Sharilynne St. Louis | People's | 489 | 0.8% |
| Himal Hossain | Green | 465 | 0.8% |
| Justin Dean Newell Leroux | Other | 316 | 0.5% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
3.4 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
4,822 votes
New Democratic took more than the 4,081-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
41 of 226
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 2,041 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 3.4% of the 60,323 valid votes, 3.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative29,156
Liberal25,075
Still Conservative by 4,081 votes. Actual margin: 4,081.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 54.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative51.3%44.8%−6.5
Liberal37.5%46.5%+9.0
New Democratic8.7%7.1%−1.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $83,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest171st lowest of 343
- Median age is 47.6 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest41st highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 14.7% — about 52 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest26th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 3.0% — about 17 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest29th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 77.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest86th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 31.0% — about 19.4 times the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest79th highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 35104ON · 2025
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt
Jim Bélanger
- Result
- Conservative gain by 4,081
- Turnout
- 70.1%
- Population
- 99,835
- Area
- 45,433 km²
Changed hands in 2025Area, largest firstLength of the ballot
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
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