The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35016Ontario

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound is a federal riding in Ontario. Alex Ruff (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound. Alex Ruff (Conservative) held Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 8,647 votes (12.9 points), with 53.0% of the vote. Anne Marie Watson (Liberal) was second with 40.1%, on a turnout of 69.8% of 96,300 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Alex Ruff's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Alex Ruff

Member of Parliament for Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Conservative

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

123 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Military Justice System Modernization Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 66,911 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Alex Ruff	Conservative	35,484	53.0%
Anne Marie Watson	Liberal	26,837	40.1%
Christopher Neudorf	New Democratic	2,069	3.1%
Natasha Akiwenzie	Green	1,447	2.2%
Others (2)		1,074	1.6%

Alex Ruff (Conservative) won Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound on April 28, 2025 with 35,484 votes, 53.0% of the 66,911 valid votes. Anne Marie Watson (Liberal) was second with 26,837 (40.1%), 8,647 votes and 12.9 points behind.

Of the 66,911 valid votes, Alex Ruff (Conservative) took 53.0%, Anne Marie Watson (Liberal) 40.1%, Christopher Neudorf (New Democratic) 3.1% and Natasha Akiwenzie (Green) 2.2%; the 2 other candidates took 1.6% together. Turnout was 69.8% of 96,300 electors: 67,260 ballots cast, 66,911 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 4.1 (48.9% to 53.0%), the Liberals up 15.0 (25.1% to 40.1%), the New Democrats down 10.4 (13.5% to 3.1%) and the Greens down 0.8 (3.0% to 2.2%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Conservatives

The party first in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative45.0%by 9.2 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative48.2%by 20.6 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative47.7%by 20.5 points over the Greens
2011Conservative56.3%by 38.7 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative46.7%by 7.9 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative46.1%by 16.0 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative48.9%by 23.8 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative53.0%by 12.9 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	45.0%	Liberal	9.2	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	48.2%	Liberal	20.6	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	47.7%	Green	20.5	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	56.3%	New Democratic	38.7	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	46.7%	Liberal	7.9	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	46.1%	Liberal	16.0	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	48.9%	Liberal	23.8	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	53.0%	Liberal	12.9	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 18.7 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Conservatives took 53.0% of the vote here, 4.6 points above their average of 48.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (45.0%), 2006 (48.2%), 2008 (47.7%), 2011 (56.3%), 2015 (46.7%), 2019 (46.1%), 2021 (48.9%) and 2025 (53.0%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Alex Ruff, by 13,989 votes (24.0 pts)
2019 Conservative · Alex Ruff, by 9,345 votes (16.0 pts)
2015 Conservative · Larry Miller, by 4,418 votes (7.9 pts)

In the old Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound is

Population: 113,3502021 census
Area: 10,251km²
Density: 11people per km²
Electors: 96,300on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Median age is 49.2 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest34th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 16.4% — about 58 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest54th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.8% — about 50 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest61st lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 77.9% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest85th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 7.8% — about 45 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest94th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $75,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest97th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound covers almost exactly the same ground as the Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Alex Ruff	Conservative	35,484	53.0%	48.9%	+4.1
Anne Marie Watson	Liberal	26,837	40.1%	25.1%	+15.0
Christopher Neudorf	New Democratic	2,069	3.1%	13.5%	−10.4
Natasha Akiwenzie	Green	1,447	2.2%	3.0%	−0.8

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Ann Gillies	Other	554	0.8%
Pavel Smolko	People's	520	0.8%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,069 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 8,647-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

39 of 237

2 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (196) · ■ won by another party (39) · ▨ tied (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 4,324 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 6.5% of the 66,911 valid votes, 6.5 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 008,648

Conservative35,484

Liberal26,837

Still Conservative by 8,647 votes. Actual margin: 8,647.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 53.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 56.1%, the Liberals 35.7%, the New Democrats 3.6%, the Greens 2.7%, the others 1.0% and the People's Party 0.9%; in advance and special ballots, 49.6%, 45.1%, 2.5%, 1.5%, 0.6% and 0.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	56.1%	49.6%	−6.5
Liberal	35.7%	45.1%	+9.4
New Democratic	3.6%	2.5%	−1.1
Green	2.7%	1.5%	−1.2
Other	1.0%	0.6%	−0.4
People's Party	0.9%	0.6%	−0.3

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/bruce-grey-owen-sound/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.