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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35073Ontario

Nipissing—Timiskaming

Nipissing—Timiskaming is a federal riding in Ontario. Pauline Rochefort (Liberal) has represented Nipissing—Timiskaming since the 2025 election. Pauline Rochefort (Liberal) held Nipissing—Timiskaming for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 1,553 votes (2.6 points), with 47.2% of the vote. Garry Keller (Conservative) was second with 44.6%, on a turnout of 69.3% of 84,973 electors. Member as of .

Abitibi—Témiscamingue · Bloc QuébécoisAlgonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke · ConservativeHaliburton—Kawartha Lakes · ConservativeKapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk · ConservativeParry Sound—Muskoka · ConservativeSudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt · ConservativeNipissing—Timiskaming
Fig. 1 — Nipissing—Timiskaming on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Nipissing—Timiskaming

LPauline Rochefort
Pauline Rochefort's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Pauline Rochefort

Member of Parliament for Nipissing—Timiskaming

Liberal

MP since · first term

  • Parliamentary Secretary to the Secretary of State (Rural Development)
  • Government Operations and Estimates committee

74 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Building Canada Strong Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Nipissing—Timiskaming, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Nipissing—Timiskaming, April 28, 2025Of the 58,576 valid votes, Pauline Rochefort (Liberal) took 47.2%, Garry Keller (Conservative) 44.6%, Valerie Kennedy (New Democratic) 6.1%, John Janssen (People's Party) 1.1% and Louise Poitras (Green) 1.0%.2025Turnout 69.3% of 84,973 electorsPauline RochefortLiberal47.2% · 27,6741,553 votes ahead · 2.7 ptsGarry KellerConservative44.6% · 26,121Valerie KennedyNew Democratic6.1% · 3,548John JanssenPeople's Party1.1% · 648Louise PoitrasGreen1.0% · 585050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Nipissing—Timiskaming, April 28, 2025Of the 58,576 valid votes, Pauline Rochefort (Liberal) took 47.2%, Garry Keller (Conservative) 44.6%, Valerie Kennedy (New Democratic) 6.1%, John Janssen (People's Party) 1.1% and Louise Poitras (Green) 1.0%.2025Turnout 69.3% of 84,973 electorsPauline RochefortLiberal47.2% · 27,6741,553 votes ahead · 2.7 ptsGarry KellerConservative44.6% · 26,121Valerie KennedyNew Democratic6.1% · 3,548John JanssenPeople's Party1.1% · 648Louise PoitrasGreen1.0% · 585050%100%
Shares of the 58,576 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Pauline RochefortLiberal27,67447.2%
Garry KellerConservative26,12144.6%
Valerie KennedyNew Democratic3,5486.1%
John JanssenPeople's Party6481.1%
Louise PoitrasGreen5851.0%

Pauline Rochefort (Liberal) won Nipissing—Timiskaming on with 27,674 votes, 47.2% of the 58,576 valid votes. Garry Keller (Conservative) was second with 26,121 (44.6%), 1,553 votes and 2.6 points behind.

Of the 58,576 valid votes, Pauline Rochefort (Liberal) took 47.2%, Garry Keller (Conservative) 44.6%, Valerie Kennedy (New Democratic) 6.1%, John Janssen (People's Party) 1.1% and Louise Poitras (Green) 1.0%. Turnout was 69.3% of 84,973 electors: 58,849 ballots cast, 58,576 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 10.6 (36.6% to 47.2%), the Conservatives up 12.9 (31.7% to 44.6%), the New Democrats down 17.1 (23.2% to 6.1%) and the People's Party down 6.8 (7.9% to 1.1%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Nipissing—Timiskaming at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Liberal42.1%by 6.8 points over the Conservatives
  2. 2006Liberal43.9%by 11.2 points over the Conservatives
  3. 2008Liberal42.7%by 11.5 points over the Conservatives
  4. 2011†changed handsConservative36.2%by 1.4 points over the Liberals
  5. 2015changed handsLiberal50.5%by 21.9 points over the Conservatives
  6. 2019Liberal39.3%by 12.1 points over the Conservatives
  7. 2021Liberal36.6%by 4.9 points over the Conservatives
  8. 2025Liberal47.2%by 2.6 points over the Conservatives
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Liberal42.1%Conservative6.8carried, our estimate
2006Liberal43.9%Conservative11.2carried, our estimate
2008Liberal42.7%Conservative11.5carried, our estimate
2011†Conservative36.2%Liberal1.4carried, our estimate
2015Liberal50.5%Conservative21.9carried, our estimate
2019Liberal39.3%Conservative12.1carried, our estimate
2021Liberal36.6%Conservative4.9transposed by Elections Canada
2025Liberal47.2%Conservative2.6official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Conservatives were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 47.2% of the vote here, 5.8 points above their average of 41.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (42.1%), 2006 (43.9%), 2008 (42.7%), 2015 (50.5%), 2019 (39.3%), 2021 (36.6%) and 2025 (47.2%) and the Conservatives in 2011 (36.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2011 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Liberal · Anthony Rota, by 3,301 votes (7.0 pts)
  • 2019 Liberal · Anthony Rota, by 6,368 votes (13.3 pts)
  • 2015 Liberal · Anthony Rota, by 11,032 votes (22.6 pts)

In the old Nipissing—Timiskaming on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Nipissing—Timiskaming lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Nipissing—Timiskaming is

Population
98,2852021 census
Area
19,212km²
Density
5.1people per km²
Electors
84,973on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Decided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327
    Decided before election day
    On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 4.3% — about 25 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest46th lowest of 343
  • Median age is 46.4 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest59th highest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.6% — about 70 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest91st lowest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 14.3% — about 8.9 times the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest91st highest of 343
  • Median total household income is $74,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest92nd lowest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 69.6% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest153rd lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 92% of the 2025 electors in today's Nipissing—Timiskaming lived in the old Nipissing—Timiskaming; by area, 20% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
91.7%Nipissing—Timiskaming 79.8% of the area
8.3%Timmins—James Bay 20.2% of the area · 1% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Pauline RochefortLiberal27,67447.2%36.6%+10.6
Garry KellerConservative26,12144.6%31.7%+12.9
Valerie KennedyNew Democratic3,5486.1%23.2%−17.1
John JanssenPeople's6481.1%7.9%−6.8
Louise PoitrasGreen5851.0%—+1.0
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
3,548 votes
New Democratic took more than the 1,553-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
115 of 195
4 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (76) · ■ won by another party (115) · ▨ tied (4).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 777 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 1.3% of the 58,576 valid votes, 1.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal27,674
Conservative26,121
Still Liberal by 1,553 votes. Actual margin: 1,553.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 53.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

On election day the Liberals took 42.6%, the Conservatives 47.7%, the New Democrats 7.1%, the People's Party 1.4% and the Greens 1.3%; in advance and special ballots, 52.7%, 41.0%, 4.8%, 0.8% and 0.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Nipissing—Timiskaming, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Nipissing—Timiskaming, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 42.6%, the Conservatives 47.7%, the New Democrats 7.1%, the People's Party 1.4% and the Greens 1.3%; in advance and special ballots, 52.7%, 41.0%, 4.8%, 0.8% and 0.7%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal42.6%52.7%+10.1 ptsConservative47.7%41.0%−6.7 ptsNew Democratic7.1%4.8%−2.3 ptsPeople's Party1.4%0.8%−0.6 ptsGreen1.3%0.7%−0.6 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Nipissing—Timiskaming, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 42.6%, the Conservatives 47.7%, the New Democrats 7.1%, the People's Party 1.4% and the Greens 1.3%; in advance and special ballots, 52.7%, 41.0%, 4.8%, 0.8% and 0.7%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal42.6%52.7%+10.1 ptsConservative47.7%41.0%−6.7 ptsNew Democratic7.1%4.8%−2.3 ptsPeople's Party1.4%0.8%−0.6 ptsGreen1.3%0.7%−0.6 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Liberal42.6%52.7%+10.1
Conservative47.7%41.0%−6.7
New Democratic7.1%4.8%−2.3
People's Party1.4%0.8%−0.6
Green1.3%0.7%−0.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Nipissing—Timiskaming and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Nipissing—Timiskaming — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/nipissing-timiskaming/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.