The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Nipissing—Timiskaming

Federal riding · ON · No. 35073 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Nipissing—Timiskaming, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Pauline Rochefort Liberal
2025 result
Liberal hold by 1,553 votes
Turnout
69.3% of 84,973 electors
Population
98,285 2021 census
Area
19,212 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Decided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327
    Decided before election day
    On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 343
  • Closeness of the race: Won by 1,553 votes (2.6 pts) · 32nd of 343 in Canada32nd
    Closeness of the race
    Won by 1,553 votes (2.6 pts) · 32nd of 343 in Canada
  • Area, largest first: 19,212 km² · 54th of 343 in Canada54th
    Area, largest first
    19,212 km² · 54th of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Pauline Rochefort held the seat for the Liberals by 1,553 votes (+2.6 points).
  2. 20% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
  3. On election day alone, the Conservatives led; advance and special ballots decided it.
  4. Share who are immigrants is the 46th lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Pauline Rochefort
Liberal · first elected 2025-04-28 · first term
  • Parliamentary Secretary to the Secretary of State (Rural Development)
  • Member: Government Operations and Estimates
55 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Resumption of Debate on Address in Reply.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 20% of today's Nipissing—Timiskaming came from ridings other than the old Nipissing—Timiskaming.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
79.8%Nipissing—Timiskaming
20.2%Timmins—James Bay 1% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Liberal hold
Elected
Pauline Rochefort
Liberal
27,674
47.2% of valid votes
Margin
1,553
votes · +2.6 pts
Runner-up
Garry Keller
Conservative
26,121
44.6% of valid votes
Liberal 47.2% · Conservative 44.6% · New Democratic 6.1% · People's 1.1% · Green 1.0%
Turnout69.3% of 84,973 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Pauline RochefortLiberal27,67447.2%36.6%+10.6
Garry KellerConservative26,12144.6%31.7%+12.9
Valerie KennedyNew Democratic3,5486.1%23.2%−17.1
John JanssenPeople's6481.1%7.9%−6.8
Louise PoitrasGreen5851.0%—+1.0
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
1.3 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
3,548 votes
New Democratic took more than the 1,553-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
115 of 195
4 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (76) · ■ won by another party (115) · ▨ tied (4).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 777 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 1.3% of the 58,576 valid votes, 1.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal27,674
Conservative26,121
Still Liberal by 1,553 votes. Actual margin: 1,553.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 53.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative47.7%41.0%−6.7
Liberal42.6%52.7%+10.1
New Democratic7.1%4.8%−2.3
People's1.4%0.8%−0.6
Green1.3%0.7%−0.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Nipissing—Timiskaming and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 35073ON · 2025
Nipissing—Timiskaming
Pauline Rochefort
Result
Liberal hold by 1,553
Turnout
69.3%
Population
98,285
Area
19,212 km²
Decided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327Decided before election dayCloseness of the race: Won by 1,553 votes (2.6 pts) · 32nd of 343 in Canada32ndCloseness of the raceArea, largest first: 19,212 km² · 54th of 343 in Canada54thArea, largest first
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

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