The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35084Ontario

Parry Sound—Muskoka

Parry Sound—Muskoka is a federal riding in Ontario. Scott Aitchison (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Parry Sound—Muskoka. Scott Aitchison (Conservative) held Parry Sound—Muskoka for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 6,179 votes (9.6 points), with 52.2% of the vote. Geordie Sabbagh (Liberal) was second with 42.6%, on a turnout of 71.4% of 91,006 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Parry Sound—Muskoka on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Parry Sound—Muskoka

Scott Aitchison's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Scott Aitchison

Member of Parliament for Parry Sound—Muskoka

Conservative

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

86 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Housing.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Parry Sound—Muskoka, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 64,653 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Scott Aitchison	Conservative	33,742	52.2%
Geordie Sabbagh	Liberal	27,563	42.6%
Heather Hay	New Democratic	2,300	3.6%
Isabel Pereira	People's Party	1,048	1.6%

Scott Aitchison (Conservative) won Parry Sound—Muskoka on April 28, 2025 with 33,742 votes, 52.2% of the 64,653 valid votes. Geordie Sabbagh (Liberal) was second with 27,563 (42.6%), 6,179 votes and 9.6 points behind.

Of the 64,653 valid votes, Scott Aitchison (Conservative) took 52.2%, Geordie Sabbagh (Liberal) 42.6%, Heather Hay (New Democratic) 3.6% and Isabel Pereira (People's Party) 1.6%. Turnout was 71.4% of 91,006 electors: 65,006 ballots cast, 64,653 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 4.5 (47.7% to 52.2%), the Liberals up 21.1 (21.5% to 42.6%), the New Democrats down 13.1 (16.7% to 3.6%) and the People's Party down 5.9 (7.5% to 1.6%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Conservative

The party first in Parry Sound—Muskoka at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal43.9%by 7.5 points over the Conservatives
2006†changed handsConservative40.1%by 0.1 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative50.2%by 25.2 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative55.7%by 31.6 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative43.3%by 4.4 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative41.8%by 11.4 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative47.7%by 26.1 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative52.2%by 9.6 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	43.9%	Conservative	7.5	carried, our estimate
2006†	Conservative	40.1%	Liberal	0.1	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	50.2%	Liberal	25.2	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	55.7%	New Democratic	31.6	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	43.3%	Liberal	4.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	41.8%	Liberal	11.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	47.7%	Liberal	26.1	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	52.2%	Liberal	9.6	official result

The Conservatives were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Liberals were first in 2004. In 2025 the Conservatives took 52.2% of the vote here, 7.2 points above their average of 45.0% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (43.9%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (40.1%), 2008 (50.2%), 2011 (55.7%), 2015 (43.3%), 2019 (41.8%), 2021 (47.7%) and 2025 (52.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2006 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Scott Aitchison, by 14,586 votes (26.3 pts)
2019 Conservative · Scott Aitchison, by 6,230 votes (11.4 pts)
2015 Conservative · Tony Clement, by 2,269 votes (4.4 pts)

In the old Parry Sound—Muskoka on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Parry Sound—Muskoka lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Parry Sound—Muskoka is

Population: 104,5052021 census
Area: 19,903km²
Density: 5.3people per km²
Electors: 91,006on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

3rd-oldest median age
Median age 54.4, 3rd highest of 343 (Median age, 2021 census)
Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Median age is 54.4 — about 1.3 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest3rd highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 82.4% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest37th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.5% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest89th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 7.7% — about 45 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest91st lowest of 343
Median total household income is $77,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest121st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.2% — about 75 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest126th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Parry Sound—Muskoka covers almost exactly the same ground as the Parry Sound—Muskoka riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Scott Aitchison	Conservative	33,742	52.2%	47.7%	+4.5
Geordie Sabbagh	Liberal	27,563	42.6%	21.5%	+21.1
Heather Hay	New Democratic	2,300	3.6%	16.7%	−13.1
Isabel Pereira	People's	1,048	1.6%	7.5%	−5.9

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,300 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 6,179-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

28 of 218

3 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (187) · ■ won by another party (28) · ▨ tied (3).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 3,090 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 4.8% of the 64,653 valid votes, 4.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 006,180

Conservative33,742

Liberal27,563

Still Conservative by 6,179 votes. Actual margin: 6,179.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 56.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 37.7%, the Conservatives 56.0%, the New Democrats 4.2% and the People's Party 2.1%; in advance and special ballots, 49.0%, 47.2%, 2.7% and 1.1%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Parry Sound—Muskoka, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	37.7%	49.0%	+11.3
Conservative	56.0%	47.2%	−8.8
New Democratic	4.2%	2.7%	−1.5
People's Party	2.1%	1.1%	−1.0

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Parry Sound—Muskoka and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Parry Sound—Muskoka — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/parry-sound-muskoka/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.