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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35111Ontario

Toronto—St. Paul's

Toronto—St. Paul's is a federal riding in Ontario. Leslie Church (Liberal) has represented Toronto—St. Paul's since the 2025 election. Leslie Church (Liberal) held Toronto—St. Paul's for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 20,613 votes (28.8 points), with 61.9% of the vote. Don Stewart (Conservative) was second with 33.1%, on a turnout of 73.7% of 97,650 electors. Member as of .

Davenport · LiberalDon Valley West · LiberalEglinton—Lawrence · LiberalUniversity—Rosedale · LiberalToronto—St. Paul's
Fig. 1 — Toronto—St. Paul's on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Toronto—St. Paul's

LLeslie Church
Leslie Church's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Leslie Church

Member of Parliament for Toronto—St. Paul's

Liberal

MP since · first term

  • Parliamentary Secretary to the Secretaries of State for Labour, for Seniors, and for Children and Youth, and to the Minister of Jobs and Families (Persons with Disabilities)
  • Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics committee
  • Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure

219 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Toronto—St. Paul's, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Toronto—St. Paul's, April 28, 2025Of the 71,581 valid votes, Leslie Church (Liberal) took 61.9%, Don Stewart (Conservative) 33.1% and Bruce Levy (New Democratic) 3.5%; the 4 other candidates took 1.5% together.2025Turnout 73.7% of 97,650 electorsLeslie ChurchLiberal61.9% · 44,31320,613 votes ahead · 28.8 ptsDon StewartConservative33.1% · 23,700Bruce LevyNew Democratic3.5% · 2,496Others (4)1.5% · 1,072050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Toronto—St. Paul's, April 28, 2025Of the 71,581 valid votes, Leslie Church (Liberal) took 61.9%, Don Stewart (Conservative) 33.1% and Bruce Levy (New Democratic) 3.5%; the 4 other candidates took 1.5% together.2025Turnout 73.7% of 97,650 electorsLeslie ChurchLiberal61.9% · 44,31320,613 votes ahead · 28.8 ptsDon StewartConservative33.1% · 23,700Bruce LevyNew Democratic3.5% · 2,496Others (4)1.5% · 1,072050%100%
Shares of the 71,581 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Leslie ChurchLiberal44,31361.9%
Don StewartConservative23,70033.1%
Bruce LevyNew Democratic2,4963.5%
Others (4)1,0721.5%

Leslie Church (Liberal) won Toronto—St. Paul's on with 44,313 votes, 61.9% of the 71,581 valid votes. Don Stewart (Conservative) was second with 23,700 (33.1%), 20,613 votes and 28.8 points behind.

Of the 71,581 valid votes, Leslie Church (Liberal) took 61.9%, Don Stewart (Conservative) 33.1% and Bruce Levy (New Democratic) 3.5%; the 4 other candidates took 1.5% together. Turnout was 73.7% of 97,650 electors: 71,968 ballots cast, 71,581 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 12.9 (49.0% to 61.9%), the Conservatives up 6.8 (26.3% to 33.1%) and the New Democrats down 12.2 (15.7% to 3.5%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Liberal stronghold

The party first in Toronto—St. Paul's at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Liberal58.3%by 38.2 points over the Conservatives
  2. 2006Liberal50.4%by 25.0 points over the Conservatives
  3. 2008Liberal50.8%by 24.4 points over the Conservatives
  4. 2011Liberal40.6%by 8.8 points over the Conservatives
  5. 2015Liberal54.9%by 27.5 points over the Conservatives
  6. 2019Liberal54.3%by 32.2 points over the Conservatives
  7. 2021Liberal49.0%by 22.8 points over the Conservatives
  8. 2025Liberal61.9%by 28.8 points over the Conservatives
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Liberal58.3%Conservative38.2carried, our estimate
2006Liberal50.4%Conservative25.0carried, our estimate
2008Liberal50.8%Conservative24.4carried, our estimate
2011Liberal40.6%Conservative8.8carried, our estimate
2015Liberal54.9%Conservative27.5carried, our estimate
2019Liberal54.3%Conservative32.2carried, our estimate
2021Liberal49.0%Conservative22.8transposed by Elections Canada
2025Liberal61.9%Conservative28.8official result

The Liberals were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 25.9 points over the next party. In 2025 the Liberals took 61.9% of the vote here, 10.7 points above their average of 51.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021. The Liberals have been first here at every general election since 1993, eleven in a row.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (58.3%), 2006 (50.4%), 2008 (50.8%), 2011 (40.6%), 2015 (54.9%), 2019 (54.3%), 2021 (49.0%) and 2025 (61.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Liberal · Carolyn Bennett, by 12,842 votes (23.9 pts)
  • 2019 Liberal · Carolyn Bennett, by 19,561 votes (32.7 pts)
  • 2015 Liberal · Carolyn Bennett, by 16,105 votes (28.3 pts)

In the old Toronto—St. Paul's on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Toronto—St. Paul's lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Toronto—St. Paul's is

Population
125,4352021 census
Area
16km²
Density
7,695people per km²
Electors
97,650on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • 8th-smallest by area in Canada: 16 km² · 8th of 3438th
    8th-smallest by area in Canada
    16 km² · 8th of 343
  • 2nd-most university degrees: 67.8% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, 2nd highest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)2nd
    2nd-most university degrees
    67.8% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, 2nd highest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 67.8% — about 2.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest2nd highest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 41.1% — about 58 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest27th lowest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 33.1% — about 1.9 times the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest89th highest of 343
  • Median total household income is $90,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest112th highest of 343
  • Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest141st lowest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest146th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 86% of the 2025 electors in today's Toronto—St. Paul's lived in the old Toronto—St. Paul's; by area, 21% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
86.3%Toronto—St. Paul's 79.5% of the area · 94% of it kept
8.4%Don Valley West 11.5% of the area · 6% of it kept
5.3%University—Rosedale 8.9% of the area · 10% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Leslie ChurchLiberal44,31361.9%49.0%+12.9
Don StewartConservative23,70033.1%26.3%+6.8
Bruce LevyNew Democratic2,4963.5%15.7%−12.2
4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Shane PhilipsGreen5520.8%
Joseph FrascaPeople's3290.5%
David GershunyOther1330.2%
Cynthia ValdronOther580.1%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
2,496 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 20,613-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
16 of 197
No poll ended in a tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (181) · ■ won by another party (16).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 10,307 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 14.4% of the 71,581 valid votes, 14.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal44,313
Conservative23,700
Still Liberal by 20,613 votes. Actual margin: 20,613.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 51.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 60.1%, the Conservatives 33.8%, the New Democrats 4.2% and the Greens 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 63.9%, 32.4%, 2.7% and 0.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Toronto—St. Paul's, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Toronto—St. Paul's, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 60.1%, the Conservatives 33.8%, the New Democrats 4.2% and the Greens 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 63.9%, 32.4%, 2.7% and 0.5%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal60.1%63.9%+3.8 ptsConservative33.8%32.4%−1.4 ptsNew Democratic4.2%2.7%−1.5 ptsGreen1.0%0.5%−0.5 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Toronto—St. Paul's, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 60.1%, the Conservatives 33.8%, the New Democrats 4.2% and the Greens 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 63.9%, 32.4%, 2.7% and 0.5%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal60.1%63.9%+3.8 ptsConservative33.8%32.4%−1.4 ptsNew Democratic4.2%2.7%−1.5 ptsGreen1.0%0.5%−0.5 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Liberal60.1%63.9%+3.8
Conservative33.8%32.4%−1.4
New Democratic4.2%2.7%−1.5
Green1.0%0.5%−0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Toronto—St. Paul's and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Toronto—St. Paul's — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/toronto-st-paul-s/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.