The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Toronto—St. Paul's
Federal riding · ON · No. 35111 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Leslie Church Liberal
- 2025 result
- Liberal hold by 20,613 votes
- Turnout
- 73.7% of 97,650 electors
- Population
- 125,435 2021 census
- Area
- 16 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Smallest by area in Canada16 km² · 8th of 343
- Most university degrees67.8% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, 2nd highest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)
- Length of the ballot7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Leslie Church held the seat for the Liberals by 20,613 votes (+28.8 points).
- 21% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 51.5% of votes were cast on the day.
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is the 2nd highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Leslie Church
- Parliamentary Secretary to the Secretaries of State for Labour, for Seniors, and for Children and Youth, and to the Minister of Jobs and Families (Persons with Disabilities)
- Member: Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics
- Member: Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 21% of today's Toronto—St. Paul's came from ridings other than the old Toronto—St. Paul's.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
79.5%Toronto—St. Paul's 94% of it kept
11.5%Don Valley West 6% of it kept
8.9%University—Rosedale 10% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Liberal hold
Elected
Leslie Church
Liberal
44,313
61.9% of valid votes
Margin
20,613
votes · +28.8 pts
Runner-up
Don Stewart
Conservative
23,700
33.1% of valid votes
Liberal 61.9% · Conservative 33.1% · New Democratic 3.5%
Turnout73.7% of 97,650 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie Church | Liberal | 44,313 | 61.9% | 49.0% | +12.9 |
| Don Stewart | Conservative | 23,700 | 33.1% | 26.3% | +6.8 |
| Bruce Levy | New Democratic | 2,496 | 3.5% | 15.7% | −12.2 |
4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Shane Philips | Green | 552 | 0.8% |
| Joseph Frasca | People's | 329 | 0.5% |
| David Gershuny | Other | 133 | 0.2% |
| Cynthia Valdron | Other | 58 | 0.1% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
14.4 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,496 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 20,613-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
16 of 197
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 10,307 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 14.4% of the 71,581 valid votes, 14.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Liberal44,313
Conservative23,700
Still Liberal by 20,613 votes. Actual margin: 20,613.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 51.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal60.1%63.9%+3.8
Conservative33.8%32.4%−1.4
New Democratic4.2%2.7%−1.5
Green1.0%0.5%−0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $90,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest112th highest of 343
- Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest141st lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 67.8% — about 2.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest2nd highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 33.1% — about 1.9 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest89th highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 41.1% — about 58 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest27th lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest146th highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 35111ON · 2025
Toronto—St. Paul's
Leslie Church
- Result
- Liberal hold by 20,613
- Turnout
- 73.7%
- Population
- 125,435
- Area
- 16 km²
Smallest by area in CanadaMost university degreesLength of the ballot
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.