The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35026Ontario

Eglinton—Lawrence

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Eglinton—Lawrence
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Eglinton—Lawrence is a federal riding in Ontario. Vince Gasparro (Liberal) has represented Eglinton—Lawrence since the 2025 election. Vince Gasparro (Liberal) held Eglinton—Lawrence for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 888 votes (1.5 points), with 49.3% of the vote. Karen Stintz (Conservative) was second with 47.8%, on a turnout of 70.4% of 86,901 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Eglinton—Lawrence on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Eglinton—Lawrence

Vince Gasparro's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Vince Gasparro

Member of Parliament for Eglinton—Lawrence

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Parliamentary Secretary to the Secretary of State (Combatting Crime)
Government Operations and Estimates committee

55 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Public Safety.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Eglinton—Lawrence, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 60,761 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Vince Gasparro	Liberal	29,949	49.3%
Karen Stintz	Conservative	29,061	47.8%
Allison Tanzola	New Democratic	996	1.6%
Others (2)		755	1.2%

Vince Gasparro (Liberal) won Eglinton—Lawrence on April 28, 2025 with 29,949 votes, 49.3% of the 60,761 valid votes. Karen Stintz (Conservative) was second with 29,061 (47.8%), 888 votes and 1.5 points behind.

Of the 60,761 valid votes, Vince Gasparro (Liberal) took 49.3%, Karen Stintz (Conservative) 47.8% and Allison Tanzola (New Democratic) 1.6%; the 2 other candidates took 1.2% together. Turnout was 70.4% of 86,901 electors: 61,177 ballots cast, 60,761 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 1.3 (48.0% to 49.3%), the Conservatives up 11.7 (36.1% to 47.8%) and the New Democrats down 7.5 (9.1% to 1.6%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Eglinton—Lawrence at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal60.2%by 35.2 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal52.9%by 22.6 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal44.0%by 4.7 points over the Conservatives
2011changed handsConservative46.8%by 8.4 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal48.9%by 6.3 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal53.3%by 20.2 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal48.0%by 11.9 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal49.3%by 1.5 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	60.2%	Conservative	35.2	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	52.9%	Conservative	22.6	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	44.0%	Conservative	4.7	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	46.8%	Liberal	8.4	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	48.9%	Conservative	6.3	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	53.3%	Conservative	20.2	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	48.0%	Conservative	11.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	49.3%	Conservative	1.5	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Conservatives were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 49.3% of the vote here, 0.1 points below their average of 49.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (60.2%), 2006 (52.9%), 2008 (44.0%), 2015 (48.9%), 2019 (53.3%), 2021 (48.0%) and 2025 (49.3%) and the Conservatives in 2011 (46.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Marco Mendicino, by 5,969 votes (12.1 pts)
2019 Liberal · Marco Mendicino, by 11,301 votes (20.2 pts)
2015 Liberal · Marco Mendicino, by 3,490 votes (6.3 pts)

In the old Eglinton—Lawrence on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Eglinton—Lawrence lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Eglinton—Lawrence is

Population: 115,8302021 census
Area: 24km²
Density: 4,867people per km²
Electors: 86,901on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 57.0% — about 2.0 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest20th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 53.4% — about 75 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest55th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 39.0% — about 2.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest62nd highest of 343
Median total household income is $97,000 — about 1.2 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest79th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest101st lowest of 343
Median age is 41.2 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest161st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Eglinton—Lawrence covers almost exactly the same ground as the Eglinton—Lawrence riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Vince Gasparro	Liberal	29,949	49.3%	48.0%	+1.3
Karen Stintz	Conservative	29,061	47.8%	36.1%	+11.7
Allison Tanzola	New Democratic	996	1.6%	9.1%	−7.5

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Wayne Chechuevskiy	Green	429	0.7%
Timothy Gleeson	People's	326	0.5%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

996 votes

New Democratic took more than the 888-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

95 of 196

2 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (99) · ■ won by another party (95) · ▨ tied (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 445 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 0.7% of the 60,761 valid votes, 0.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 00890

Liberal29,949

Conservative29,061

Still Liberal by 888 votes. Actual margin: 888.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 47.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 48.4%, the Conservatives 47.7% and the New Democrats 2.2%; in advance and special ballots, 50.0%, 48.0% and 1.1%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Eglinton—Lawrence, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	48.4%	50.0%	+1.6
Conservative	47.7%	48.0%	+0.3
New Democratic	2.2%	1.1%	−1.1

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Eglinton—Lawrence and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Eglinton—Lawrence — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/eglinton-lawrence/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.