The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35112Ontario

University—Rosedale

Name: University—Rosedale by-election, 2026-04-13
Start: 2026-04-13
End: 2026-04-13

University—Rosedale is a federal riding in Ontario. Danielle Martin (Liberal) has represented University—Rosedale since the by-election of 2026-04-13. Danielle Martin held the seat for the Liberals at the by-election of 2026-04-13 by 14,091 votes (45.4 points) with 64.3% of the vote. Chrystia Freeland (Liberal) held University—Rosedale for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 25,223 votes (40.5 points), with 64.0% of the vote. Liz Grade (Conservative) was second with 23.5%, on a turnout of 65.4% of 95,884 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — University—Rosedale on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents University—Rosedale

Danielle Martin's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Danielle Martin

Member of Parliament for University—Rosedale

Liberal

MP since the by-election of 2026-04-13 · first term

Finance committee
Government Operations and Estimates committee

29 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, University—Rosedale, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 62,265 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Chrystia Freeland	Liberal	39,847	64.0%
Liz Grade	Conservative	14,624	23.5%
Serena Purdy	New Democratic	6,168	9.9%
Ignacio Mongrell	Green	1,066	1.7%
Others (3)		560	0.9%

Chrystia Freeland (Liberal) won University—Rosedale on April 28, 2025 with 39,847 votes, 64.0% of the 62,265 valid votes. Liz Grade (Conservative) was second with 14,624 (23.5%), 25,223 votes and 40.5 points behind.

Of the 62,265 valid votes, Chrystia Freeland (Liberal) took 64.0%, Liz Grade (Conservative) 23.5%, Serena Purdy (New Democratic) 9.9% and Ignacio Mongrell (Green) 1.7%; the 3 other candidates took 0.9% together. Turnout was 65.4% of 95,884 electors: 62,731 ballots cast, 62,265 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 17.9 (46.1% to 64.0%), the Conservatives up 5.7 (17.8% to 23.5%), the New Democrats down 17.9 (27.8% to 9.9%) and the Greens down 2.7 (4.4% to 1.7%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in University—Rosedale at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal47.2%by 10.4 points over the New Democrats
2006Liberal43.6%by 3.9 points over the New Democrats
2008Liberal40.3%by 6.8 points over the New Democrats
2011changed handsNew Democratic47.6%by 19.2 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal51.0%by 22.7 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal52.6%by 31.0 points over the New Democrats
2021Liberal46.1%by 18.2 points over the New Democrats
2025Liberal64.0%by 40.5 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	47.2%	New Democratic	10.4	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	43.6%	New Democratic	3.9	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	40.3%	New Democratic	6.8	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	47.6%	Liberal	19.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	51.0%	New Democratic	22.7	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	52.6%	New Democratic	31.0	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	46.1%	New Democratic	18.2	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	64.0%	Conservative	40.5	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the NDP were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 64.0% of the vote here, 19.8 points above their average of 44.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (47.2%), 2006 (43.6%), 2008 (40.3%), 2015 (51.0%), 2019 (52.6%), 2021 (46.1%) and 2025 (64.0%) and the NDP in 2011 (47.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Chrystia Freeland, by 10,530 votes (22.3 pts)
2019 Liberal · Chrystia Freeland, by 17,079 votes (29.8 pts)
2015 Liberal · Chrystia Freeland, by 11,861 votes (21.2 pts)

In the old University—Rosedale on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's University—Rosedale lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place University—Rosedale is

Population: 123,8152021 census
Area: 15km²
Density: 8,539people per km²
Electors: 95,884on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

5th-smallest by area in Canada
15 km² · 5th of 343
3rd-most university degrees
67.5% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, 3rd highest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 67.5% — about 2.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest3rd highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 40.6% — about 57 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest25th lowest of 343
Median age is 36.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest32nd lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 36.2% — about 2.1 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest71st highest of 343
Median total household income is $77,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest121st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 2.1% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest135th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 80% of the 2025 electors in today's University—Rosedale lived in the old University—Rosedale; by area, 14% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

79.6%University—Rosedale 85.9% of the area · 87% of it kept

14.0%Spadina—Fort York 11.6% of the area · 8% of it kept

6.5%Toronto Centre 2.5% of the area · 6% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Chrystia Freeland	Liberal	39,847	64.0%	46.1%	+17.9
Liz Grade	Conservative	14,624	23.5%	17.8%	+5.7
Serena Purdy	New Democratic	6,168	9.9%	27.8%	−17.9
Ignacio Mongrell	Green	1,066	1.7%	4.4%	−2.7

3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Drew Garvie	Other	304	0.5%
Barbara Biley	Other	138	0.2%
Adam Golding	Independent	118	0.2%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

The by-election of 2026-04-13Liberal hold

Danielle Martin (Liberal) held University—Rosedale for the Liberals at the by-election of 2026-04-13 by 14,091 votes (45.4 points) with 64.3% of the vote; Serena Purdy (New Democratic) was second with 18.9%.

Elected: Danielle Martin Liberal · 19,961 votes · 64.3%
Runner-up: Serena Purdy New Democratic · 5,870 votes · 18.9%
Margin: 14,091 votes 45.4 pts · of 31,028 valid votes
Turnout: 32.8% of 94,723 electors · 87 rejected ballots

The Liberal share here was 64.3% at the by-election of 2026-04-13 and 64.0% in the 2025 election, with 10 candidates on the ballot.

Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, read 2026-10-08. Every candidate and the full result →

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

6,168 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 25,223-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

7 of 172

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (165) · ■ won by another party (7).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 12,612 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 20.3% of the 62,265 valid votes, 20.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0025,224

Liberal39,847

Conservative14,624

Still Liberal by 25,223 votes. Actual margin: 25,223.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.0% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 60.7%, the Conservatives 25.7%, the New Democrats 10.6% and the Greens 1.9%; in advance and special ballots, 68.1%, 20.8%, 9.1% and 1.4%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, University—Rosedale, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	60.7%	68.1%	+7.4
Conservative	25.7%	20.8%	−4.9
New Democratic	10.6%	9.1%	−1.5
Green	1.9%	1.4%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — University—Rosedale and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"University—Rosedale — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/university-rosedale/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.