The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35099Ontario

Simcoe North

Simcoe-Nord

Simcoe North is a federal riding in Ontario. Adam Chambers (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2021) represents Simcoe North. Adam Chambers (Conservative) held Simcoe North for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 2,474 votes (3.7 points), with 48.4% of the vote. Ryan Rocca (Liberal) was second with 44.7%, on a turnout of 68.6% of 97,780 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Simcoe North on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Simcoe North

Adam Chambers's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Adam Chambers

Member of Parliament for Simcoe North

Conservative

MP since 2021-09-20 · 2 terms

International Trade committee
Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Vice-Chair, International Trade committee

108 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—Food Inflation and Budgetary Policy — Opposition Motion—Canada Carbon Rebate and Payment to Quebec — Main Estimates and Supplementary Estimates (A), 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Simcoe North, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 66,605 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Adam Chambers	Conservative	32,241	48.4%
Ryan Rocca	Liberal	29,767	44.7%
Melissa Lloyd	New Democratic	2,508	3.8%
Ray Little	Green	1,260	1.9%
Stephen Toivo Makk	People's Party	638	1.0%
Other (1)		191	0.3%

Adam Chambers (Conservative) won Simcoe North on April 28, 2025 with 32,241 votes, 48.4% of the 66,605 valid votes. Ryan Rocca (Liberal) was second with 29,767 (44.7%), 2,474 votes and 3.7 points behind.

Of the 66,605 valid votes, Adam Chambers (Conservative) took 48.4%, Ryan Rocca (Liberal) 44.7%, Melissa Lloyd (New Democratic) 3.8%, Ray Little (Green) 1.9% and Stephen Toivo Makk (People's Party) 1.0%; one other candidate took 0.3%. Turnout was 68.6% of 97,780 electors: 67,087 ballots cast, 66,605 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 6.4 (42.0% to 48.4%), the Liberals up 14.0 (30.7% to 44.7%), the New Democrats down 12.1 (15.9% to 3.8%), the Greens down 1.1 (3.0% to 1.9%) and the People's Party down 6.6 (7.6% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Conservative

The party first in Simcoe North at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal43.4%by 5.7 points over the Conservatives
2006changed handsConservative40.4%by 2.1 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative49.7%by 22.0 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative54.5%by 34.6 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative43.5%by 3.7 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative43.4%by 12.6 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative42.0%by 11.3 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative48.4%by 3.7 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	43.4%	Conservative	5.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	40.4%	Liberal	2.1	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	49.7%	Liberal	22.0	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	54.5%	New Democratic	34.6	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	43.5%	Liberal	3.7	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	43.4%	Liberal	12.6	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	42.0%	Liberal	11.3	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	48.4%	Liberal	3.7	official result

The Conservatives were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Liberals were first in 2004. In 2025 the Conservatives took 48.4% of the vote here, 4.0 points above their average of 44.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (43.4%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (40.4%), 2008 (49.7%), 2011 (54.5%), 2015 (43.5%), 2019 (43.4%), 2021 (42.0%) and 2025 (48.4%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Adam Chambers, by 8,051 votes (12.6 pts)
2019 Conservative · Bruce Stanton, by 7,931 votes (12.6 pts)
2015 Conservative · Bruce Stanton, by 2,118 votes (3.7 pts)

In the old Simcoe North on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Simcoe North lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Simcoe North is

Population: 112,0252021 census
Area: 2,978km²
Density: 38people per km²
Electors: 97,780on the 2025 lists

Median age is 50.0 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest24th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 18.3% — about 65 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest74th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 9.1% — about 53 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest105th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 75.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest113th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 2.8% — about 1.7 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest118th highest of 343
Median total household income is $77,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest121st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Simcoe North, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Simcoe North, but it is only 90% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Simcoe North 100.0% of the area · 90% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Adam Chambers	Conservative	32,241	48.4%	42.0%	+6.4
Ryan Rocca	Liberal	29,767	44.7%	30.7%	+14.0
Melissa Lloyd	New Democratic	2,508	3.8%	15.9%	−12.1
Ray Little	Green	1,260	1.9%	3.0%	−1.1
Stephen Toivo Makk	People's	638	1.0%	7.6%	−6.6

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Russ Emo

Other

191

0.3%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,508 votes

New Democratic took more than the 2,474-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

40 of 193

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (153) · ■ won by another party (40).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,238 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 1.9% of the 66,605 valid votes, 1.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 002,476

Conservative32,241

Liberal29,767

Still Conservative by 2,474 votes. Actual margin: 2,474.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 40.3%, the Conservatives 51.3%, the New Democrats 4.5%, the Greens 2.3% and the People's Party 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 50.2%, 44.7%, 2.8%, 1.4% and 0.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Simcoe North, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	40.3%	50.2%	+9.9
Conservative	51.3%	44.7%	−6.6
New Democratic	4.5%	2.8%	−1.7
Green	2.3%	1.4%	−0.9
People's Party	1.2%	0.7%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Simcoe North and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Simcoe North — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/simcoe-north/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.