The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35017Ontario

Burlington

Burlington is a federal riding in Ontario. Karina Gould (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Burlington. Karina Gould (Liberal) held Burlington for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 11,907 votes (15.2 points), with 55.8% of the vote. Emily Brown (Conservative) was second with 40.6%, on a turnout of 76.5% of 102,695 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Burlington on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Burlington

Karina Gould's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Karina Gould

Member of Parliament for Burlington

Liberal

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Chair, Finance committee
Chair, Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Finance committee
Liaison committee

41 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—Measures to Support the Manufacturing Sector.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Burlington, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 78,126 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Karina Gould	Liberal	43,593	55.8%
Emily Brown	Conservative	31,686	40.6%
Michael Beauchemin	New Democratic	1,549	2.0%
Others (4)		1,298	1.7%

Karina Gould (Liberal) won Burlington on April 28, 2025 with 43,593 votes, 55.8% of the 78,126 valid votes. Emily Brown (Conservative) was second with 31,686 (40.6%), 11,907 votes and 15.2 points behind.

Of the 78,126 valid votes, Karina Gould (Liberal) took 55.8%, Emily Brown (Conservative) 40.6% and Michael Beauchemin (New Democratic) 2.0%; the 4 other candidates took 1.7% together. Turnout was 76.5% of 102,695 electors: 78,589 ballots cast, 78,126 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 10.3 (45.5% to 55.8%), the Conservatives up 3.6 (37.0% to 40.6%) and the New Democrats down 8.8 (10.8% to 2.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Burlington at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal45.0%by 6.6 points over the Conservatives
2006changed handsConservative43.1%by 4.0 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative48.6%by 15.3 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative54.2%by 30.9 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal46.0%by 3.5 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal48.6%by 15.4 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal45.5%by 8.4 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal55.8%by 15.2 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	45.0%	Conservative	6.6	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	43.1%	Liberal	4.0	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	48.6%	Liberal	15.3	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	54.2%	Liberal	30.9	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	46.0%	Conservative	3.5	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	48.6%	Conservative	15.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	45.5%	Conservative	8.4	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	55.8%	Conservative	15.2	official result

The Liberals were first at five of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at three; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 55.8% of the vote here, 15.7 points above their average of 40.1% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021. It has gone with the party that formed the government at all eleven general elections from 1993 to 2025.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (45.0%), 2015 (46.0%), 2019 (48.6%), 2021 (45.5%) and 2025 (55.8%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (43.1%), 2008 (48.6%) and 2011 (54.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Karina Gould, by 5,860 votes (8.4 pts)
2019 Liberal · Karina Gould, by 11,059 votes (15.4 pts)
2015 Liberal · Karina Gould, by 2,449 votes (3.5 pts)

In the old Burlington on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Burlington lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Burlington is

Population: 125,4352021 census
Area: 85km²
Density: 1,472people per km²
Electors: 102,695on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Median total household income is $101,000 — about 1.2 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest61st highest of 343
Median age is 46.0 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest65th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 41.0% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest94th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 23.6% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest133rd highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 69.5% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest151st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.5% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest166th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Burlington covers almost exactly the same ground as the Burlington riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Karina Gould	Liberal	43,593	55.8%	45.5%	+10.3
Emily Brown	Conservative	31,686	40.6%	37.0%	+3.6
Michael Beauchemin	New Democratic	1,549	2.0%	10.8%	−8.8

4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Kyle Hutton	Green	595	0.8%
Michael Bator	People's	523	0.7%
Ocean Marshall	Other	105	0.1%
Paul Harper	Other	75	0.1%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,549 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 11,907-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

78 of 235

6 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (151) · ■ won by another party (78) · ▨ tied (6).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 5,954 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 7.6% of the 78,126 valid votes, 7.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0011,908

Liberal43,593

Conservative31,686

Still Liberal by 11,907 votes. Actual margin: 11,907.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 52.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 51.2%, the Conservatives 44.3%, the New Democrats 2.5%, the Greens 0.9% and the People's Party 0.8%; in advance and special ballots, 60.8%, 36.5%, 1.5%, 0.6% and 0.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Burlington, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	51.2%	60.8%	+9.6
Conservative	44.3%	36.5%	−7.8
New Democratic	2.5%	1.5%	−1.0
Green	0.9%	0.6%	−0.3
People's Party	0.8%	0.5%	−0.3

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Burlington and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Burlington — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/burlington/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.