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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35083Ontario

Oxford

Oxford is a federal riding in Ontario. Arpan Khanna (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2023) represents Oxford. Arpan Khanna (Conservative) held Oxford for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 10,880 votes (15.2 points), with 53.4% of the vote. David Hilderley (Liberal) was second with 38.2%, on a turnout of 71.5% of 100,501 electors. Member as of .

Brantford—Brant South · vacantCambridge · ConservativeElgin—St. Thomas—London South · ConservativeFlamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North · ConservativeHaldimand—Norfolk · ConservativeKitchener—Conestoga · LiberalMiddlesex—London · ConservativePerth—Wellington · ConservativeOxford
Fig. 1 — Oxford on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Oxford

CArpan Khanna
Arpan Khanna's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Arpan Khanna

Member of Parliament for Oxford

Conservative

MP since · 2 terms

147 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—Food Inflation and Budgetary Policy — Main Estimates and Supplementary Estimates (A), 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Oxford, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Oxford, April 28, 2025Of the 71,551 valid votes, Arpan Khanna (Conservative) took 53.4%, David Hilderley (Liberal) 38.2%, Matthew Chambers (New Democratic) 4.3%, Jacob Watson (Christian Heritage Party) 1.7% and Cheryle Baker (Green) 1.3%; the 3 other candidates took 1.3% together.2025Turnout 71.5% of 100,501 electorsArpan KhannaConservative53.4% · 38,19110,880 votes ahead · 15.2 ptsDavid HilderleyLiberal38.2% · 27,311Matthew ChambersNew Democratic4.3% · 3,046Jacob WatsonChristian HeritageParty1.7% · 1,203Cheryle BakerGreen1.3% · 897Others (3)1.3% · 903050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Oxford, April 28, 2025Of the 71,551 valid votes, Arpan Khanna (Conservative) took 53.4%, David Hilderley (Liberal) 38.2%, Matthew Chambers (New Democratic) 4.3%, Jacob Watson (Christian Heritage Party) 1.7% and Cheryle Baker (Green) 1.3%; the 3 other candidates took 1.3% together.2025Turnout 71.5% of 100,501 electorsArpan KhannaConservative53.4% · 38,19110,880 votes ahead · 15.2 ptsDavid HilderleyLiberal38.2% · 27,311Matthew ChambersNew Democratic4.3% · 3,046Jacob WatsonChristian Heritage Party1.7% · 1,203Cheryle BakerGreen1.3% · 897Others (3)1.3% · 903050%100%
Shares of the 71,551 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Arpan KhannaConservative38,19153.4%
David HilderleyLiberal27,31138.2%
Matthew ChambersNew Democratic3,0464.3%
Jacob WatsonChristian Heritage Party1,2031.7%
Cheryle BakerGreen8971.3%
Others (3)9031.3%

Arpan Khanna (Conservative) won Oxford on with 38,191 votes, 53.4% of the 71,551 valid votes. David Hilderley (Liberal) was second with 27,311 (38.2%), 10,880 votes and 15.2 points behind.

Of the 71,551 valid votes, Arpan Khanna (Conservative) took 53.4%, David Hilderley (Liberal) 38.2%, Matthew Chambers (New Democratic) 4.3%, Jacob Watson (Christian Heritage Party) 1.7% and Cheryle Baker (Green) 1.3%; the 3 other candidates took 1.3% together. Turnout was 71.5% of 100,501 electors: 71,856 ballots cast, 71,551 of them valid, for 8 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 6.9 (46.5% to 53.4%), the Liberals up 17.6 (20.6% to 38.2%), the New Democrats down 14.0 (18.3% to 4.3%), the others up 1.1 (0.8% to 1.7%) and the Greens down 1.4 (2.7% to 1.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Oxford at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Conservative44.9%by 14.4 points over the Liberals
  2. 2006Conservative46.6%by 18.5 points over the Liberals
  3. 2008Conservative52.7%by 33.3 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011Conservative58.9%by 33.3 points over the New Democrats
  5. 2015Conservative45.7%by 13.5 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Conservative48.1%by 27.9 points over the New Democrats
  7. 2021Conservative46.5%by 26.0 points over the Liberals
  8. 2025Conservative53.4%by 15.2 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Conservative44.9%Liberal14.4carried, our estimate
2006Conservative46.6%Liberal18.5carried, our estimate
2008Conservative52.7%Liberal33.3carried, our estimate
2011Conservative58.9%New Democratic33.3carried, our estimate
2015Conservative45.7%Liberal13.5carried, our estimate
2019Conservative48.1%New Democratic27.9carried, our estimate
2021Conservative46.5%Liberal26.0transposed by Elections Canada
2025Conservative53.4%Liberal15.2official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 22.7 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 53.4% of the vote here, 4.4 points above their average of 49.0% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (44.9%), 2006 (46.6%), 2008 (52.7%), 2011 (58.9%), 2015 (45.7%), 2019 (48.1%), 2021 (46.5%) and 2025 (53.4%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Conservative · Dave MacKenzie, by 16,426 votes (26.5 pts)
  • 2019 Conservative · Dave MacKenzie, by 17,004 votes (27.9 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Dave MacKenzie, by 7,667 votes (13.5 pts)

In the old Oxford on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Oxford lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Oxford is

Population
121,7802021 census
Area
2,165km²
Density
56people per km²
Electors
100,501on the 2025 lists
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 16.6% — about 59 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest55th lowest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest79th lowest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 11.4% — about 66 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest128th lowest of 343
  • Median total household income is $87,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest138th highest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 73.4% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest142nd highest of 343
  • Median age is 41.6 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest163rd highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Oxford, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Oxford, but it is only 91% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
100.0%Oxford 100.0% of the area · 91% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Arpan KhannaConservative38,19153.4%46.5%+6.9
David HilderleyLiberal27,31138.2%20.6%+17.6
Matthew ChambersNew Democratic3,0464.3%18.3%−14.0
Jacob WatsonOther1,2031.7%0.8%+1.1
Cheryle BakerGreen8971.3%2.7%−1.4
3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Steven BeausoleilPeople's6420.9%
Melanie Van BruggeOther1520.2%
Akshay Varun Raj VardhanIndependent1090.2%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
3,046 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 10,880-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
17 of 201
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (183) · ■ won by another party (17) · ▨ tied (1).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 5,441 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 7.6% of the 71,551 valid votes, 7.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative38,191
Liberal27,311
Still Conservative by 10,880 votes. Actual margin: 10,880.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 55.7%, the Liberals 34.4%, the New Democrats 4.8%, the others 2.4%, the Greens 1.5% and the People's Party 1.1%; in advance and special ballots, 50.5%, 42.9%, 3.5%, 1.2%, 1.0% and 0.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Oxford, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Oxford, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 55.7%, the Liberals 34.4%, the New Democrats 4.8%, the others 2.4%, the Greens 1.5% and the People's Party 1.1%; in advance and special ballots, 50.5%, 42.9%, 3.5%, 1.2%, 1.0% and 0.7%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative55.7%50.5%−5.2 ptsLiberal34.4%42.9%+8.5 ptsNew Democratic4.8%3.5%−1.3 ptsOther2.4%1.2%−1.2 ptsGreen1.5%1.0%−0.5 ptsPeople's Party1.1%0.7%−0.4 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Oxford, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 55.7%, the Liberals 34.4%, the New Democrats 4.8%, the others 2.4%, the Greens 1.5% and the People's Party 1.1%; in advance and special ballots, 50.5%, 42.9%, 3.5%, 1.2%, 1.0% and 0.7%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative55.7%50.5%−5.2 ptsLiberal34.4%42.9%+8.5 ptsNew Democratic4.8%3.5%−1.3 ptsOther2.4%1.2%−1.2 ptsGreen1.5%1.0%−0.5 ptsPeople's Party1.1%0.7%−0.4 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Conservative55.7%50.5%−5.2
Liberal34.4%42.9%+8.5
New Democratic4.8%3.5%−1.3
Other2.4%1.2%−1.2
Green1.5%1.0%−0.5
People's Party1.1%0.7%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Oxford and its 8 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Oxford — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/oxford/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.