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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35060Ontario

Milton East—Halton Hills South

Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud

Milton East—Halton Hills South is a federal riding in Ontario. Kristina Tesser Derksen (Liberal) has represented Milton East—Halton Hills South since the 2025 election. Kristina Tesser Derksen (Liberal) held Milton East—Halton Hills South for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 21 votes (0.1 points), with 48.3% of the vote. Parm Gill (Conservative) was second with 48.2%, on a turnout of 73.6% of 90,990 electors. Member as of .

Brampton North—Caledon · LiberalBrampton South · LiberalBrampton West · ConservativeBurlington North—Milton West · LiberalMississauga—Erin Mills · LiberalMississauga—Streetsville · LiberalOakville East · LiberalOakville West · LiberalWellington—Halton Hills North · ConservativeMilton East—Halton Hills South
Fig. 1 — Milton East—Halton Hills South on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Milton East—Halton Hills South

LKristina Tesser Derksen
Kristina Tesser Derksen's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Kristina Tesser Derksen

Member of Parliament for Milton East—Halton Hills South

Liberal

MP since · first term

  • Medical Assistance in Dying committee
  • Public Accounts committee
  • Status of Women committee

71 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Milton East—Halton Hills South, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Milton East—Halton Hills South, April 28, 2025Of the 66,685 valid votes, Kristina Tesser Derksen (Liberal) took 48.3%, Parm Gill (Conservative) 48.2%, Muhammad Riaz Sahi (New Democratic) 1.5% and Susan Doyle (Green) 1.0%; the 2 other candidates took 1.0% together.2025Turnout 73.6% of 90,990 electorsKristina TesserDerksenLiberal48.3% · 32,17821 votes ahead · under 0.1 ptsParm GillConservative48.2% · 32,157Muhammad Riaz SahiNew Democratic1.5% · 1,029Susan DoyleGreen1.0% · 672Others (2)1.0% · 649050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Milton East—Halton Hills South, April 28, 2025Of the 66,685 valid votes, Kristina Tesser Derksen (Liberal) took 48.3%, Parm Gill (Conservative) 48.2%, Muhammad Riaz Sahi (New Democratic) 1.5% and Susan Doyle (Green) 1.0%; the 2 other candidates took 1.0% together.2025Turnout 73.6% of 90,990 electorsKristina Tesser DerksenLiberal48.3% · 32,17821 votes ahead · under 0.1 ptsParm GillConservative48.2% · 32,157Muhammad Riaz SahiNew Democratic1.5% · 1,029Susan DoyleGreen1.0% · 672Others (2)1.0% · 649050%100%
Shares of the 66,685 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Kristina Tesser DerksenLiberal32,17848.3%
Parm GillConservative32,15748.2%
Muhammad Riaz SahiNew Democratic1,0291.5%
Susan DoyleGreen6721.0%
Others (2)6491.0%

Kristina Tesser Derksen (Liberal) won Milton East—Halton Hills South on with 32,178 votes, 48.3% of the 66,685 valid votes. Parm Gill (Conservative) was second with 32,157 (48.2%), 21 votes and 0.1 points behind.

Of the 66,685 valid votes, Kristina Tesser Derksen (Liberal) took 48.3%, Parm Gill (Conservative) 48.2%, Muhammad Riaz Sahi (New Democratic) 1.5% and Susan Doyle (Green) 1.0%; the 2 other candidates took 1.0% together. Turnout was 73.6% of 90,990 electors: 67,013 ballots cast, 66,685 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 6.8 (41.5% to 48.3%), the Conservatives up 7.2 (41.0% to 48.2%), the New Democrats down 8.0 (9.5% to 1.5%) and the Greens down 1.6 (2.6% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Milton East—Halton Hills South at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Liberal44.0%by 3.7 points over the Conservatives
  2. 2006changed handsConservative47.0%by 10.8 points over the Liberals
  3. 2008Conservative51.9%by 21.6 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011Conservative58.5%by 36.7 points over the Liberals
  5. 2015Conservative47.8%by 9.0 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019†changed handsLiberal41.7%by 0.7 points over the Conservatives
  7. 2021Liberal41.5%by 0.5 points over the Conservatives
  8. 2025Liberal48.3%by 0.1 points over the Conservatives
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Liberal44.0%Conservative3.7carried, our estimate
2006Conservative47.0%Liberal10.8carried, our estimate
2008Conservative51.9%Liberal21.6carried, our estimate
2011Conservative58.5%Liberal36.7carried, our estimate
2015Conservative47.8%Liberal9.0carried, our estimate
2019†Liberal41.7%Conservative0.7carried, our estimate
2021Liberal41.5%Conservative0.5transposed by Elections Canada
2025Liberal48.3%Conservative0.1official result

The Liberals were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at four; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 48.3% of the vote here, 12.0 points above their average of 36.3% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (44.0%), 2019 (41.7%), 2021 (41.5%) and 2025 (48.3%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (47.0%), 2008 (51.9%), 2011 (58.5%) and 2015 (47.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2019 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Liberal · Adam van Koeverden, by 10,190 votes (18.4 pts)
  • 2019 Liberal · Adam van Koeverden, by 9,318 votes (15.6 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Lisa Raitt, by 2,438 votes (5.0 pts)

In Milton on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Milton East—Halton Hills South lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Milton East—Halton Hills South is

Population
116,7302021 census
Area
257km²
Density
455people per km²
Electors
90,990on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • 4th-closest race in Canada: Won by 21 votes (0.1 pts) · 4th of 3434th
    4th-closest race in Canada
    Won by 21 votes (0.1 pts) · 4th of 343
  • 6th-highest household income: Median household income $129,000, 6th highest of 343 (Median total household income, 2021 census)6th
    6th-highest household income
    Median household income $129,000, 6th highest of 343 (Median total household income, 2021 census)
  • 9th-most home owners: 85.9% of households own their home, 9th highest of 343 (Share of households that own their home, 2021 census)9th
    9th-most home owners
    85.9% of households own their home, 9th highest of 343 (Share of households that own their home, 2021 census)
  • Median total household income is $129,000 — about 1.5 times the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest6th highest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 85.9% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest9th highest of 343
  • Median age is 38.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest66th lowest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 43.7% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest73rd highest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 33.4% — about 1.9 times the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest85th highest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.3% — about 81 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest141st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 57% of the 2025 electors in today's Milton East—Halton Hills South lived in the old Milton; by area, 60% of the riding came from the old Wellington—Halton Hills.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
57.0%Milton 39.9% of the area · 22% of it kept
43.0%Wellington—Halton Hills 60.1% of the area · 10% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Kristina Tesser DerksenLiberal32,17848.3%41.5%+6.8
Parm GillConservative32,15748.2%41.0%+7.2
Muhammad Riaz SahiNew Democratic1,0291.5%9.5%−8.0
Susan DoyleGreen6721.0%2.6%−1.6
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Walter J. HofmanPeople's4750.7%
Shahbaz Mahmood KhanIndependent1740.3%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
1,029 votes
New Democratic took more than the 21-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
104 of 176
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (71) · ■ won by another party (104) · ▨ tied (1).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 11 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 0.02% of the 66,685 valid votes, 0.1 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal32,178
Conservative32,157
Still Liberal by 21 votes. Actual margin: 21.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 54.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

On election day the Liberals took 45.4%, the Conservatives 50.4%, the New Democrats 1.8% and the Greens 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 51.6%, 45.6%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Milton East—Halton Hills South, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Milton East—Halton Hills South, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 45.4%, the Conservatives 50.4%, the New Democrats 1.8% and the Greens 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 51.6%, 45.6%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal45.4%51.6%+6.2 ptsConservative50.4%45.6%−4.8 ptsNew Democratic1.8%1.2%−0.6 ptsGreen1.2%0.8%−0.4 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Milton East—Halton Hills South, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 45.4%, the Conservatives 50.4%, the New Democrats 1.8% and the Greens 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 51.6%, 45.6%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal45.4%51.6%+6.2 ptsConservative50.4%45.6%−4.8 ptsNew Democratic1.8%1.2%−0.6 ptsGreen1.2%0.8%−0.4 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Liberal45.4%51.6%+6.2
Conservative50.4%45.6%−4.8
New Democratic1.8%1.2%−0.6
Green1.2%0.8%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Milton East—Halton Hills South and its 9 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Milton East—Halton Hills South — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/milton-east-halton-hills-south/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.