The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35025Ontario

Dufferin—Caledon

Dufferin—Caledon is a federal riding in Ontario. Kyle Seeback (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2011) represents Dufferin—Caledon. Kyle Seeback (Conservative) held Dufferin—Caledon for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 17,640 votes (24.9 points), with 60.1% of the vote. Malalai Halimi (Liberal) was second with 35.2%, on a turnout of 71.1% of 99,794 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Dufferin—Caledon on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Dufferin—Caledon

Kyle Seeback's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Kyle Seeback

Member of Parliament for Dufferin—Caledon

Conservative

MP since 2011-05-02 · 4 terms

201 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Automotive Industry.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Dufferin—Caledon, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 70,595 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Kyle Seeback	Conservative	42,458	60.1%
Malalai Halimi	Liberal	24,818	35.2%
Viktor Karklins	New Democratic	1,380	2.0%
Ifra Baig	Green	927	1.3%
Dympna Carolan	People's Party	752	1.1%
Other (1)		260	0.4%

Kyle Seeback (Conservative) won Dufferin—Caledon on April 28, 2025 with 42,458 votes, 60.1% of the 70,595 valid votes. Malalai Halimi (Liberal) was second with 24,818 (35.2%), 17,640 votes and 24.9 points behind.

Of the 70,595 valid votes, Kyle Seeback (Conservative) took 60.1%, Malalai Halimi (Liberal) 35.2%, Viktor Karklins (New Democratic) 2.0%, Ifra Baig (Green) 1.3% and Dympna Carolan (People's Party) 1.1%; one other candidate took 0.4%. Turnout was 71.1% of 99,794 electors: 70,913 ballots cast, 70,595 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 11.3 (48.8% to 60.1%), the Liberals up 6.7 (28.5% to 35.2%), the New Democrats down 8.3 (10.3% to 2.0%), the Greens down 3.2 (4.5% to 1.3%) and the People's Party down 6.0 (7.1% to 1.1%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Dufferin—Caledon at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative42.8%by 3.8 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative47.9%by 18.0 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative53.2%by 33.9 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative59.0%by 44.3 points over the Greens
2015Conservative46.3%by 7.2 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative42.0%by 9.0 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative48.8%by 20.3 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative60.1%by 24.9 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	42.8%	Liberal	3.8	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	47.9%	Liberal	18.0	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	53.2%	Liberal	33.9	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	59.0%	Green	44.3	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	46.3%	Liberal	7.2	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	42.0%	Liberal	9.0	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	48.8%	Liberal	20.3	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	60.1%	Liberal	24.9	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 20.2 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 60.1% of the vote here, 11.5 points above their average of 48.6% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (42.8%), 2006 (47.9%), 2008 (53.2%), 2011 (59.0%), 2015 (46.3%), 2019 (42.0%), 2021 (48.8%) and 2025 (60.1%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Kyle Seeback, by 11,623 votes (17.7 pts)
2019 Conservative · Kyle Seeback, by 6,207 votes (9.0 pts)
2015 Conservative · David Allan Tilson, by 4,334 votes (7.2 pts)

In the old Dufferin—Caledon on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Dufferin—Caledon lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Dufferin—Caledon is

Population: 120,8152021 census
Area: 2,162km²
Density: 56people per km²
Electors: 99,794on the 2025 lists

Share of households that own their home is 85.5% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest12th highest of 343
Median total household income is $118,000 — about 1.4 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest23rd highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest79th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 25.7% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest149th lowest of 343
Median age is 42.0 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest155th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 19.2% — a little higher than the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest164th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Dufferin—Caledon, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Dufferin—Caledon, but it is only 94% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Dufferin—Caledon 100.0% of the area · 94% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Kyle Seeback	Conservative	42,458	60.1%	48.8%	+11.3
Malalai Halimi	Liberal	24,818	35.2%	28.5%	+6.7
Viktor Karklins	New Democratic	1,380	2.0%	10.3%	−8.3
Ifra Baig	Green	927	1.3%	4.5%	−3.2
Dympna Carolan	People's	752	1.1%	7.1%	−6.0

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Jeffrey Halsall

Independent

260

0.4%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,380 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 17,640-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

3 of 207

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (204) · ■ won by another party (3).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 8,821 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 12.5% of the 70,595 valid votes, 12.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0017,642

Conservative42,458

Liberal24,818

Still Conservative by 17,640 votes. Actual margin: 17,640.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.2% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 63.1%, the Liberals 31.6%, the New Democrats 2.1%, the Greens 1.5% and the People's Party 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 56.5%, 39.6%, 1.8%, 1.1% and 0.9%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Dufferin—Caledon, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	63.1%	56.5%	−6.6
Liberal	31.6%	39.6%	+8.0
New Democratic	2.1%	1.8%	−0.3
Green	1.5%	1.1%	−0.4
People's Party	1.2%	0.9%	−0.3

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Dufferin—Caledon and its 8 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Dufferin—Caledon — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/dufferin-caledon/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.