The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury
Federal riding · ON · No. 35069 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Vacant
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 14,803 votes
- Turnout
- 68.4% of 97,255 electors
- Population
- 119,360 2021 census
- Area
- 754 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Population, largest first119,360 people, 2021 census · 75th of 343 in Canada
- Width of the marginWon by 22.4 points (14,803 votes) · 122nd of 343 in Canada
- Turnout, lowest first68.4% of 97,255 electors voted · 140th of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Scot Davidson held the seat for the Conservatives by 14,803 votes (+22.4 points).
- 38% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 52.9% of votes were cast on the day.
- Share of households that own their home is the 24th highest of 343 ridings.
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 38% of today's New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury came from ridings other than the old York—Simcoe.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
62.0%York—Simcoe 40% of it kept
38.0%Simcoe—Grey 10% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Scot Davidson
Conservative
39,247
59.4% of valid votes
Margin
14,803
votes · +22.4 pts
Runner-up
Mike Hanrahan
Liberal
24,444
37.0% of valid votes
Conservative 59.4% · Liberal 37.0% · New Democratic 1.9% · Green 1.1%
Turnout68.4% of 97,255 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scot Davidson | Conservative | 39,247 | 59.4% | 47.3% | +12.1 |
| Mike Hanrahan | Liberal | 24,444 | 37.0% | 30.0% | +7.0 |
| Nancy Morrison | New Democratic | 1,226 | 1.9% | 12.9% | −11.0 |
| Callum McKinnon | Green | 712 | 1.1% | 1.2% | −0.1 |
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
| Paul Montague | People's | 496 | 0.8% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
11.2 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
1,226 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 14,803-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
5 of 88
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 7,402 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 11.2% of the 66,125 valid votes, 11.2 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative39,247
Liberal24,444
Still Conservative by 14,803 votes. Actual margin: 14,803.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 52.9% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative61.1%57.4%−3.7
Liberal34.5%39.7%+5.2
New Democratic2.2%1.5%−0.7
Green1.3%0.8%−0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $111,000 — about 1.3 times the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest36th highest of 343
- Median age is 38.8 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest89th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 26.2% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest155th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 26.4% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest122nd highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 83.9% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest24th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.9% — about 56 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest79th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 35069ON · 2025
New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury
- Result
- Conservative hold by 14,803
- Turnout
- 68.4%
- Population
- 119,360
- Area
- 754 km²
Population, largest firstWidth of the marginTurnout, lowest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.